Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andy Dalton a QB1?
2. Will Joe Mixon run away with the starting RB job?
3. Is Brandon LaFell draftable?
4. Will John Ross make a fantasy impact?
5. Is Tyler Eifert a top 8 TE?
The letdown I anticipated with Andy Dalton last season didn’t materialize, as he racked up the 12th most QB fantasy points despite dealing with an underperforming backfield, no A.J. Green for six games, and no Tyler Eifert for many more. So he can be excused for never collecting more than two TDs in a contest. Signed for three more years and equipped with impressive (and healthy) teammates, Dalton is primed to return to 2015 form, when for a while he flirted with near-elite numbers. His QB-18 ADP is the result of lazy research (i.e. looking at last year’s stats). It’s the same mistake people made on him heading into 2015. Expect 3,800+ yards and 28+ TDs, culminating in top 12 positional numbers that will swell to the top 8 if key guys don't get seriously hurt.
Last season neither Cincy lead back cleared 3.8 YPC. How many Bengal drives stalled because of one too many one-yard gains on 2nd and long? Jeremy Hill hasn’t been able to recapture the magic of 2014, while Gio Bernard’s ACL tear could sideline him until October. Rookie Joe Mixon (RB-19 ADP) will have every opportunity to be Cincy’s bell cow. If he earns 275+ touches, he’ll be a steal at that draft spot. Pay close attention to him and Hill this summer to confirm what kind of role the Bengals envision for each.
A.J. Green is A.J. Green. As he goes, so goes Dalton, and vice versa. A healthy Green will be a locked-in WR1, plain and simple. Meanwhile, rookie John Ross is recovering from shoulder surgery. Considering Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd stand in his way, it’s very possible Ross claims a starting job. But we might not see him on the field until August, so he’s basically a speculative late-round pick based on later-season upside. Do not--I repeat, do not--make the mistake of drafting LaFell. In 2016 LaFell averaged 10.2 fantasy points with Green on the field and 13.5 with Green sidelined. When both Green and Tyler Eifert were out, LaFell averaged 19.4. If everyone stays moderately healthy, last year’s 35th highest scoring fantasy WR won’t crack the top 50. Second-year-pro Boyd will supplant LaFell in targets at some point this season, rendering the 30-year-old no better than the fifth or sixth option on offense.
While writing today’s post, I wanted to sing Eifert’s praises. Two preseasons ago this site promoted the mostly ignored tight end as a TE1 despite an average draft position of TE-24. Every summer I believe he has the talent and the rapport with Dalton to dominate. But as strange as it might sound to some, I can’t justify his TE-7 ADP. He’s been healthy enough to play in 22 of the Bengals’ past 48 games and now must contend with a more potent run game in the red zone and a somewhat improved aerial attack. He’s averaged under five targets per game for his NFL career. If he racks up double-digit TDs, I’ll be proven wrong. But what’s more likely is a 13-game season with 600-650 yards and 5-7 scores, culminating in top 10-12 TE numbers.