Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kirk Cousins a QB1?
2. Will Robert Kelley or Samaje Perine--or both--lead the backfield?
3. Is Terrelle Pryor a WR2?
4. Is Josh Doctson draftable?
5. Does Jordan Reed's upside outweigh his injury risks?
I lived in Washington, DC for roughly 20 years and was a frequent listener of local sports radio. Even when Robert Griffin III was lighting things up in his 2012 rookie season, those who covered the team up close believed fellow rookie Kirk Cousins was a terrific backup. Ever since, Washington fans have agonized over this basic "what if" question: What if the team hadn't traded two first rounders and a second rounder for the rights to draft RGIII? What if they'd used their #6 pick on Luke Kuechly (who went #9) or Stephon Gilmore (#10) or Dontari Poe (#11) or Fletcher Cox (#12)? Would Cousins have helped lead this team to a Super Bowl title by now?
Probably not, but as an objective observer with no team allegiances, I think it's a fair question. It's not often that the backup to a franchise QB replaces the starter, then loses the starting job, then reclaims it and leaves all doubters in the dust. I never bought into Cousins as a franchise QB, yet I have to confront the fact that he was fantasy's 5th highest scoring QB last year. Is that repeatable? Terrelle Pryor netted 1,000+ yards with second- and third-rate QBs throwing to him in Cleveland. 2016 first rounder Josh Doctson is finally healthy. The running game should improve with the drafting of Samaje Perine, making this offense potentially even more proficient. All signs point to Cousins proving last year's breakout was no fluke. Yet there's one red flag to consider: the Redskins were 1-5-1 when Cousins threw for 300+ yards. The team underperformed with an 8-7-1 record. Washington's Achilles' heel in recent years has been defense, but they loaded up on defenders in this year's draft. If that translates into, at minimum, a mid-tier D vs. last year's bottom 8 unit, it could mean more running--particularly in the fourth quarter. The Redskins didn't have that luxury in about half of last year's contests. That's why Cousins' current QB-11 ADP makes sense. Expect a slight regression for the storied franchise's latest franchise QB.
At running back, camp buzz suggests Perine could win the starting job. And OC Matt Cavanaugh commented earlier this month that "if a guy’s got a hot hand...we’ll keep him on the field." So clearly this situation is too muddled at the moment. I loved Kelley last summer as a potential impact fantasy player if Matt Jones was sidelined. For now, I'm in wait-and-see mode, and am not very confident either player will be draftable in the first few rounds. Further muddying the waters is Chris Thompson, who'll resume being a deep flex option in large leagues with top 35 RB potential. The more crowded backfield means fewer rushing attempts, making last year’s total production (in which he was the 28th highest scoring fantasy RB) unachievable. Still, he's not even listed among the top 67 RBs in average draft position, suggesting he's moderately to significantly undervalued.
Terrelle Pryor proved me wrong last season; I couldn’t envision the QB-turned-WR dominating for the Browns. Despite fading badly down the stretch (58 yards and no scores in the fantasy playoffs), Pryor will benefit playing in a much better offensive system. He’s priced right at a WR-21 ADP, though if Doctson struggles, Pryor should push for mid-range WR2 numbers. On the other side of the field, Jamison Crowder took a giant leap in 2016 and should, at minimum, maintain that production level. He’ll be a weekly WR3 with TD-dependent upside and is a “buy” at his WR-33 ADP. And Doctson is the great unknown—someone who had greater dynasty appeal last summer, and who still needs to beat out Ryan Grant to claim the #3 wideout spot. Early-summer drafters could do worse than grab Doctson in the final round. But it’s hard to imagine him clearing 500 yards and three TDs with Pryor, Crowder, and Jordan Reed on the field.
Speaking of Reed, like Pryor his injury-influenced fantasy playoff face-plant (16 yards and zero TDs in two games played) caused plenty of heartache in the fantasy world. But by now, everyone drafting Reed should know the deal: elite when healthy, except when hurt. He’s averaged 11.5 games a year in four NFL campaigns. His TE-2 ADP is far more bullish than sensible. Expect nagging injuries to hinder him at some point(s) this season. Top 4-6 production is entirely realistic if he misses no more than three contests. But I’d let an opponent draft him as the second or third TE off the board.