For the next 32 days, I'll share initial thoughts on each NFL team's fantasy implications. Some things we can know with near certainty. Others are more speculation. Essentially, this next month lays the groundwork for continued research and analysis--particularly in situations where depth charts remain in flux.
1. Will Tyrod Taylor continue to crank out useful fantasy production?
2. Is LeSean McCoy an RB1 lock?
3. Can Sammy Watkins stay healthy?
4. Is rookie Zay Jones ready to be a weekly contributor?
5. Is Charles Clay draftable in deep leagues?
Tyrod Taylor is one of two quarterbacks (Blake Bortles is the other) whose fantasy production far exceeded his perceived value. Taylor was 2017’s ninth highest scoring fantasy QB despite not playing Week 17 and (more importantly) despite Sammy Watkins missing half the season. Supported by one of the league’s worst receiving corps (when Watkins wasn’t on the field), Taylor did more with less than any other QB. While Buffalo might replace him after this season, and while the team will remain a run-first offense after finishing second in rushing attempts last season, the 27-year-old is a near lock to improve on last year’s numbers, making his current QB-19 ADP insanely misguided.
LeSean McCoy is coming off his best season since 2011. Last summer I tagged him as “a nice bounce-back candidate after struggling with injuries.” This year he’ll be a first round pick in most leagues. What I like most about McCoy—besides his talent—is that he carried the ball only 234 times in 2016. But thanks to a 5.4 YPC and 50 receptions, he accumulated over 1,600 yards. Barring injury, similar numbers should be expected in 2017. Meanwhile, 23-year-old Jonathan Williams should replace Mike Gillislee as McCoy’s handcuff / complementary back.
If you believe Sammy Watkins can stay healthy after battling a foot injury all of last season, then grab him at his current WR2 value. Expect a career year for the contract-year receiver: 1,100+ yards and 8+ TDs. If you’re risk averse, then I can’t (and won’t) talk you into taking a chance on a guy most Buffaloans view as a bust. We’ll have a better sense of which Watkins we’ll see based on whether he’s hurt in August. Right now, I’m higher on Watkins than most. Across the field, rookie Zay Jones is a clear bargain at his WR-71 ADP. The college standout has top 25 potential if/when Watkins sits—primarily because nearly every other Bills receiver is an underachieving castoff from another team. I want Jones when around 50 WRs are off the board—and maybe only 35-40 if there’s a hint Watkins won’t be 100% to start the season. The only other wideout worth mentioning is Andre Holmes, who faded in Oakland after the arrival of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but who's been running with Buffalo's first-team offense this preseason. Holmes should be added to fantasy managers' radars if he ever gets the chance to start.
Charles Clay (16th highest scoring fantasy TE in 2016) was one of my favorite undervalued TEs last preseason, as his TE-27 ADP was ridiculous. This year he’s moved up to a 21 ADP, which means he’ll remain a value play. Draftable? Not in most leagues. Worth keeping an eye on? Absolutely. Despite recent reports of knee issues, keep in mind he battled chronic injuries all last season. The guy is accustomed to playing hurt. Low-end TE1 numbers are achievable if he gets a dozen more looks—or a handful more in the red zone. To understand his potential, all you need to do is look at last year’s fantasy playoffs, when he corralled 18 balls on 23 targets for 209 yards and four TDs.
Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Tyrod Taylor continue to crank out useful fantasy production?
2. Is LeSean McCoy an RB1 lock?
3. Can Sammy Watkins stay healthy?
4. Is rookie Zay Jones ready to be a weekly contributor?
5. Is Charles Clay draftable in deep leagues?
Tyrod Taylor is one of two quarterbacks (Blake Bortles is the other) whose fantasy production far exceeded his perceived value. Taylor was 2017’s ninth highest scoring fantasy QB despite not playing Week 17 and (more importantly) despite Sammy Watkins missing half the season. Supported by one of the league’s worst receiving corps (when Watkins wasn’t on the field), Taylor did more with less than any other QB. While Buffalo might replace him after this season, and while the team will remain a run-first offense after finishing second in rushing attempts last season, the 27-year-old is a near lock to improve on last year’s numbers, making his current QB-19 ADP insanely misguided.
LeSean McCoy is coming off his best season since 2011. Last summer I tagged him as “a nice bounce-back candidate after struggling with injuries.” This year he’ll be a first round pick in most leagues. What I like most about McCoy—besides his talent—is that he carried the ball only 234 times in 2016. But thanks to a 5.4 YPC and 50 receptions, he accumulated over 1,600 yards. Barring injury, similar numbers should be expected in 2017. Meanwhile, 23-year-old Jonathan Williams should replace Mike Gillislee as McCoy’s handcuff / complementary back.
If you believe Sammy Watkins can stay healthy after battling a foot injury all of last season, then grab him at his current WR2 value. Expect a career year for the contract-year receiver: 1,100+ yards and 8+ TDs. If you’re risk averse, then I can’t (and won’t) talk you into taking a chance on a guy most Buffaloans view as a bust. We’ll have a better sense of which Watkins we’ll see based on whether he’s hurt in August. Right now, I’m higher on Watkins than most. Across the field, rookie Zay Jones is a clear bargain at his WR-71 ADP. The college standout has top 25 potential if/when Watkins sits—primarily because nearly every other Bills receiver is an underachieving castoff from another team. I want Jones when around 50 WRs are off the board—and maybe only 35-40 if there’s a hint Watkins won’t be 100% to start the season. The only other wideout worth mentioning is Andre Holmes, who faded in Oakland after the arrival of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but who's been running with Buffalo's first-team offense this preseason. Holmes should be added to fantasy managers' radars if he ever gets the chance to start.
Charles Clay (16th highest scoring fantasy TE in 2016) was one of my favorite undervalued TEs last preseason, as his TE-27 ADP was ridiculous. This year he’s moved up to a 21 ADP, which means he’ll remain a value play. Draftable? Not in most leagues. Worth keeping an eye on? Absolutely. Despite recent reports of knee issues, keep in mind he battled chronic injuries all last season. The guy is accustomed to playing hurt. Low-end TE1 numbers are achievable if he gets a dozen more looks—or a handful more in the red zone. To understand his potential, all you need to do is look at last year’s fantasy playoffs, when he corralled 18 balls on 23 targets for 209 yards and four TDs.