Why the Cowboys' Success Might Hurt the Fantasy Prospects of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dez Bryant

If you have Ezekiel Elliott and/or Dez Bryant, you were probably pretty happy with yesterday’s statistical results.  But looking toward the fantasy playoffs, the game result could prove damaging.

Last week I talked about teams getting eliminated from the playoffs—how some of their players’ values take a potential hit, as nagging injuries and teams’ player development goals lead some starters to sit out the final games.  It’s not a done deal.  It’s not to be expected.  But the probability that someone like T.Y. Hilton will sit Week 16 increases if the Colts are 6-8 and out of the playoff hunt vs. 7-7 and one game out of first in the AFC South.

The same is true for teams that have clinched their playoff seed.  Although only some fantasy leagues don’t extend to Week 17, the final week of last season featured a 12-3 Patriots team that barely played Tom Brady (134 yards and no TDs), Rob Gronkowski (18 yards and no TDs), and other big names.  The same is sometimes true in Week 16 or even Week 15 when a postseason-bound team’s star player would absolutely start under other circumstances, but with a #1 seed locked up, rests his ailing hamstring to ensure he’ll be ready when it next counts.

That’s why Gronk’s injury news this past week was multi-layered.  Even if he hadn’t had surgery, some questioned whether New England would simply sit him for several games.  A first-round bye seems more likely than not.  So why trot him out there and risk further damage?  Of course, this is all moot now, with Gronk missing the rest of the regular season and probably the playoffs.  But the writing was on the wall last week: the Pats could afford to wait if needed.  And that’s terrible news for fantasy managers.

So the Cowboys’ win last night mattered.  If the Giants lose to the Steelers Sunday (likely, in my opinion), Dallas will be 2 ½ games up in its quest for the NFC’s #1 seed (ahead of Seattle).  If Dallas goes on to beat the Giants and Bucs these next two weeks, they will clinch the top spot.  Or they might be able to sew things up a week earlier if Seattle loses this week or next.

What role, then, would Dak Prescott play in a meaningless Week 16 matchup?  Would Ezekiel Elliott continue to earn 22 carries per game?  Would the finally healthy Dez Bryant play like the Cowboys’ season was on the line?

Whatever happens, the Cowboys are on track to have to make those decisions before the regular season ends.  And that’s dangerous territory for fantasy managers.