Writing this Sleeper Saturday column a little later than usual. Top priority this morning: taking apart our
crib and reassembling it in a new room, prepping for baby #3 (shameless plug
for baby #3). Our first two were born in
the thick of the NFL season.
Fortunately, #3 is due in March. Good
karma.
While many of you are in the playoffs or still fighting for a spot, others
compete in DFS competitions. Below are
the best Week 14 bargains based on FanDuel pricing.
At QB, Carson Wentz (dirt cheap at $6,500) faces a mediocre Washington
defense at home. With nearly everyone
healthy again, Philly finally has enough firepower to exceed 15 points
(something they haven’t done for four games).
Given his price, Wentz is a steal.
If you’re in the playoffs, expect 200+ yards and two scores.
As I wrote a few days ago, Colin Kaepernick ($7,300) should have called
in sick Sunday in Chicago. His nearly
historically ugly performance shouldn’t impact his Week 14 fantasy outlook,
especially facing a Jets pass defense that can’t stop most teams. I like Kap as a top 14 fantasy QB and as a
strong DFS bargain.
To those seeking elite production regardless of price, my three
favorite QBs this week are Drew Brees ($8,700), Matthew Stafford ($8,500), and
Eli Manning ($7,700). I believe we’ll
see 4+ TDs for the first two and 3+ for Eli.
Low-cost RB bargains include handcuff-turned-complementary-back Derrick
Henry ($5,000). His floor is fairly low,
so he’s not a reliable plug-in. But his
upside is high enough to make him a worthwhile dart throw. The even cheaper Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,600) has
played far better than Doug Martin this season.
Reports out of Tampa Bay suggest Martin isn’t guaranteed a prominent
role this week. In DFS, Rodgers is a
potential steal. In regular leagues, he’s
in the Derrick Henry camp. But keep an
eye on Charles Sims’ status; if he’s taken off IR, a potential three-headed
backfield likely would make Rodgers too risky.
In Atlanta, Julio Jones’ shaky status and Mohamed Sanu’s absence will
put more weight on the running game, giving Tevin Coleman ($5,400) a chance at RB1/2
production. If you don’t have another RB2
option, I’d try Coleman. And why is Ryan
Matthews valued at only $4,600? A
FanDuel oversight? Admittedly, Mathews
has shocked me this year. I thought he’d
be a bust. Instead, he’s getting enough
goal-line looks to be on everyone’s weekly radar, despite his sporadic
usage. Assuming he’s active for Sunday’s
game (currently he’s questionable), Mathews is the biggest DFS RB bargain out
there.
Somewhat higher-priced RB bargains include Devonta Freeman ($7,500) and
Theo Riddick ($6,300) (assuming Riddick is okay by game-time). Both guys have serious top 8 PPR potential.
My favorite cheap WR this week is boom-bust receiver Torrey Smith
($4,700). His speed and Kap’s arm are
made for games like this one against the Jets.
Most games he’s as likely to get zero fantasy points as he is 15. Tomorrow, that’ll be a risk worth taking. Sterling Shepard ($5,500) will benefit from
Eli’s big game; I’m eyeing WR2 numbers.
And Taylor Gabriel’s deflated price ($5,400) assumed Julio and Sanu
would be playing. Instead, Gabriel might
be Matt Ryan’s biggest target tomorrow.
Slightly pricier but still affordable WRs I’m loving in Week 14 include
all three Saints wideouts: Michael Thomas ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($6,300), and
Willie Snead ($6,100). Although Thomas
is listed as questionable, he’s expected to be fine. Golden Tate ($6,300) is comparably priced,
which makes no sense given his WR1 upside.
And Sammy Watkins ($6,000) has too much upside to be only the 31st
most expensive WR in Sunday/Monday games.
At TE, Austin Hooper ($4,700) will get more attention because of the
Falcons’ injuries. Coby Fleener ($5,300)
and Cameron Brate ($5,600) should both outperform others in their price group.
If you’re looking for cheap DST options, the Packers ($4,400) and
Jaguars ($4,200) are terrific fliers.
And two updates:
Buffalo’s weather has shifted since earlier this week. Now only 1-3 inches of snow are
expected. Big Ben’s prospects tick
upward. While I’m still not expecting
top 10 numbers, he’s a more reasonable high-floor option.
And as a couple of you have pointed out, yesterday it was reported that
Amari Cooper’s missed connection on a potential huge play was caused by the
football hitting a camera wire. This
wasn’t a “What was he thinking?” moment.
It was a “When technology goes bad” moment.
I think that covers everything, which is good timing, because my kids
need lunch.