I was talking Thursday with a good guy named Zach Gorwitz who, like
most people I seem to talk with, loves fantasy football. He has three basic strategies. The second one: “Draft Tony Romo.”
I laughed. Then thought for a
moment. Then had that “a-ha” moment Zach
clearly had had many years ago. Until
last season, Romo was a perennial sure-fire, late-round bargain pick. In 2014 and 2013 he was the 13th
highest scoring fantasy QB (and would have been better if he’d played in all 16
games). He was 7th and 9th
in 2012 and 2011. He was even better the
decade before (when healthy, which has always been the rub with Romo).
So while Zach’s #2 strategy seemed oddly funny at first, there’s a
bigger picture here: for several seasons, Romo was a guy you could land in the
10th round or later, and who produced good enough numbers to help
managers vie for a title. You could grab
Aaron Rodgers, Drew, Brees, Tom Brady, or another seemingly reliable option
early, or you wait much longer and take a chance on a guy who might get you
only 2-3 fewer points per game.
This season the top 3-6 fantasy QBs are Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, Dak
Prescott, and Kirk Cousins. They all fit
into that “Tony Romo” group of guys who, at their best, are worth much more
than their draft position. Last year’s
Romos were Blake Bortles (#3) and Carson Palmer (#5). The year before, the under-the-radar Andrew
Luck (#1) and never-before-near-elite Ben Roethlisberger (#5).
Next year, depending on where he plays, Romo might once again be a worthwhile
target in the Romo strategy. But we can
see how Zach’s approach goes beyond the Cowboy veteran: Next season, will I
reach for a 20-24 point QB in the third or fourth round? Or will I settle on a high-upside 16-24 point
QB—someone who can be easily replaced if he’s a bust, and who would represent
one of the draft’s biggest steals if he thrives? I’m now in the Zach camp.
A quick word on Week 13 sleepers.
At RB, Tim Hightower (ESPN #24 Week 13 RB) is an obvious must-start if
Mark Ingram sits. Theo Riddick is a
steal at his current #20 ranking.
Kenneth Dixon is a worthwhile reach at #26, as is Dion Lewis at #29. And both Denard Robinson (#47) and Christine
Michael (#52) are decent Hail Marys if you’re stuck; with Robinson, it comes
down to Chris Ivory’s and T.J. Yeldon’s health.
With Michael, I continue to believe he’ll overtake James Starks during
the fantasy playoffs.
At WR, why is ESPN ranking Travis Benjamin 47th? Because he had a bad game coming off an
injury? Ridiculous. With Ty Williams ailing, Benjamin is a WR3
with tremendous upside. Quincy Enunwa
(#42) is a nice reach. Marquess Wilson
(#39) deserves to be started, even with Matt Barkley at the healm. The same with Tyler Boyd (#38) and Sterling
Shepard (#37). Dorial Green-Beckham (#51)
is a WR3+ if Jordan Matthews sits or is clearly less than 100%. And Matthew Berry—good ol’ Matthew Berry, who
actually took the time to have a one-on-one lunch with me last December, so I
have nothing but kind things to say about him personally—somehow has ranked
Willie Snead #39 this week. Snead should
be active in all leagues against a team who yields the league’s highest
completion percentage (an incredible 74%) and QBR (106.4) to opposing QBs. The Saints are putting up 40+ points.