The Impact of Poor QB Play on WRs

Can the 29th highest scoring fantasy QB get any worse?  Yes, yes he can.  Ryan Fitzpatrick, the 2015 low-end QB1 who’s redefined “boom-bust career quarterback,” is no doubt benched for the season.  Now the Jets will see what they have in Bryce Petty.  But for fantasy managers, the damage is done.

Brandon Marshall’s average draft position by the end of this preseason was WR-9.  Through 13 weeks he’s hovering near the top 40.

Eric Decker owned a WR-23 ADP this preseason.  He was knocked out for the year in Week 3.

Quincy Enunwa has been fantasy irrelevant in seven of his past 10 games.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins would have scored nearly as many fantasy points this season if he’d been retired.  But in fairness, that has less to do with Fitzpatrick and more to do with ASJ’s inability to play to his potential.

When we draft receivers or acquire them during the season, we’re betting not only on their health, but also on the health and abilities of their QB.  We’ve seen over and over what happens when an injured or self-destructing QB gives way to a dink-and-dunk backup managing 150 yards a game and an occasional score.  Or when an inexperienced starting QB simply can’t reach the next level midseason.

How many of you burned a first-round pick on DeAndre Hopkins, not realizing Brock Osweiler would render him mostly unstartable?  How many leaned on Alshon Jeffery, expecting Jay Cutler to be better than the mediocre QB he’s always been?

That’s why the best WR situation generally consists of a team’s clear-cut #1 receiver catching balls from a QB1: Antonio Brown from Big Ben.  Julio Jones from Matt Ryan.  Jordy Nelson from Aaron Rodgers.  T.Y. Hilton from Andrew Luck.  Amari Cooper from Derek Carr.

When dealing with QB2s, it takes a unique talent (like Mike Evans) to get the most out of a high-middling QB like Jameis Winston.  And when there’s no clear-cut #1 (see San Diego), it’s a guessing game each week, where you’re just as likely to get stuck with two points as you are with 10+.

Fantasy frustration at the WR position comes from unreliability.  And unreliability comes from one of two things: limited targets and/or limited QB talent.  If you have doubts about one or both, don’t over-reach; there will be plenty of similar mid-to-high-risk WRs available later in the draft and throughout the season.