Each December we can look back on summer as “The Days of Fantasy
Ignorance.” This year is no
exception. A few months ago most experts
viewed Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, and DeAndre Hopkins as positionally
elite. Many thought of Doug Martin,
Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffery, and Brandon Marshall
as reliably 2nd- or 3rd-tier.
These days, RBs like Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard—midseason pickups in
most leagues—are difference makers. Undrafted
WRs like Taylor Gabriel and Davante Adams are weekly high-upside plug-ins. Summertime backups Cameron Brate and C.J.
Fiedorowicz have become relatively high-volume TE1s.
It’s tough to give up on underperforming talent, and it’s not always
clear when to take the leap on an unheralded contributor (especially when this
leap means giving up on a valued player).
On my end, similar decisions have been popping up every week: trading
for Golden Tate in the midst of his disastrous start (great); choosing the
injured Kenneth Dixon over backup Jordan Howard after Week 2 (terrible);
dropping Cole Beasley after Week 3 instead of trying to trade him (terrible);
trading Jeremy Langford, Allen Hurns, Devontae Booker, and Corey Coleman at peak
value (great); not accepting a trade involving unloading Jarvis Landry at peak
value (terrible); dropping Rob Kelley in mid-October to make room for a
bye-week TE replacement (terrible); and so on.
The fact is, a couple poorer decisions probably would have kept me from
reaching the playoffs, while a couple better decisions (such as drafting David
Johnson over Todd Gurley and accepting Howard instead of Dixon) would have made
my team almost unstoppable.
Reality never fails to upend expectations. The most successful fantasy managers identify
and embrace reality faster than others. No
excuses to those of us who’ve been slow to the uptake. It’s never too late to adjust our thinking; new
difference makers arrive on the scene every week.
Good luck today.