Mannings are known to have career years late. Peyton was 37 when he broke records and
lifted fantasy managers to dominance.
Eli was 34 (last season) when he topped his previous bests in TDs and
QBR.
One of my fantasy philosophies is that late-career blow-ups generally
are not sustainable. They’re almost
always the best a player will ever do.
Some guys are better in their 30s than they were in their 20s, but to
expect they’ll be better at 38 than they were at a career-year 37—or 35 vs.
34—is risky thinking.
It’s why Eli, a universal top 10 preseason QB this summer (and top 6 on
most of the big sites) was ranked 17th on my draft board: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/08/shaun-hill-and-jamaal-charles-updates.html. I couldn’t envision another career year for a
guy I viewed—and described this summer—as “Jay Cutler with two Super Bowl rings.”
Looking ahead to the weekend, here’s a quick run-through of some
overrated and underrated WRs, based on 114 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros”
Overrated:
I don’t trust Michael Crabtree (#8) as more than a high-risk,
high-reward WR with Derek Carr ailing.
His top 10 ranking suggests must-start status. He’s worth the risk as a WR3+, but he’s
nowhere near a lock to produce.
Demaryius Thomas (#13) and Emmanuel Sanders (#15) have far outperformed
my expectations this year. In Kansas
City this weekend, Trevor Siemian won’t be able to throw his way to fantasy
mediocrity. Neither WR will exceed eight
fantasy points.
Underrated:
Dontrelle Inman (#25) has a great shot at WR1 production this week, and
at worst is priced right. Teammate Travis
Benjamin (#68) is worth a flyer if you need a WR3/4.
Malcolm Mitchell (#29) is one of my favorite “Should I start him?” WRs
this week. I’d feel comfortable rolling
him out as a WR2. Teammate Chris Hogan
(#53) is a great desperation play because of his availability in most leagues.
Kenny Britt (#31) has earned a better ranking than what experts are giving
him. He’s the lead receiver on a team
seeking to avenge a Week 1 pummeling to the NFL’s worst defense. It adds up to 100+ yards and a score. Another Ram, Tavon Austin (#63) is worth
starting if your WR3/4 cupboard is empty (terrible analogy, but it’s Friday).
Tyler Lockett (#42) is healthy and shouldn’t be underestimated. Ignore his season’s work and look at what he
did last week. He’ll be a top 30 WR next
season and should be treated as a WR2/3 this week.
Ted Ginn (#44) is back to being a TD machine. He’s the most trusted Carolina receiver
outside of Greg Olsen and is worth a WR3 look.