Overrated and Underrated Week 16 QBs

Over the next few days I’ll examine overrated and underrated Week 16 players at each position, weighing rankings put forth by most of the biggest fantasy experts around.  Fantasy Pros compiles these rankings every week, and as of this morning 40 expert rankings have been aggregated.  So let’s start by looking at QBs.

Overrated:

Kirk Cousins (#6 ranked Week 15 QB) is coming off his worst game since Week 1.  He’s also the fifth highest scoring fantasy QB this season, which suggests why so many experts are giving him the benefit of the doubt in Chicago this weekend.  I’m not so generous.  The Bears are giving up the NFL’s sixth fewest passing yards.  Jordan Reed is questionable at best to contribute.  In fact, three of Cousins’ five worst fantasy performances in 2016 have come in these past three games, when Reed has been out or ineffective.  I’m putting Cousins outside the top 12.

Will Matt Moore (#21) repeat his Week 15 heroics in Buffalo?  Not even close.  Even his low Week 16 ranking is too optimistic.  Moore exploited one of the league’s worst pass Ds in the Jets.  Buffalo owns a top 8 pass defense, and a win keeps them in the playoff hunt.  I’m expecting a 12+ point win for the Bills, and for the barely middling Moore to be exposed as a bottom-6 QB.

Underrated:

Experts collectively ranked Dak Prescott 15th in Week 15, which I pointed last Wednesday was embarrassingly off.  This week they’ve placed him at #14.  Not sure where the blind spot is, but Dak will be his usual QB1 self at home against Detroit.  I’m expecting top 8 numbers.

Tyrod Taylor (#15) is a slight bargain; he should push into the top 12 vs. Miami.  The weather is expected to be mild for Buffalo (low 30s).  He’s worth the risk if you don’t have a QB1 in your back pocket.

Jared Goff (#32) is one of those guys you don’t want to start this late in the season.  It might put you in the embarrassing position of having to explain yourself to friends and family.  But in two-QB leagues he’s a must-start, and in very deep leagues . . . well, I’ll go as big as I can and say he’ll be in the top 18, assuming he starts (concussion symptoms).  San Francisco has arguably the most atrocious defense in the NFL.  The Rams (barely) have enough playmakers to give Goff a great shot at two scores.