I’m hearing a lot of QB sit-start questions already this week. Because of tough matchups and erratic play,
this is probably the toughest Week 15 in years when it comes to dependable QBs
to plug in. But first, a few overrated
guys—this time using Fantasy Pros’ collection of 41 experts to see what the “market”
is telling us.
Overrated:
Derek Carr (experts’ #6 Week 15 QB) had some bad luck last week,
including “Camera Wire-gate,” when a certain 72-yard TD pass to Amari Cooper
was brilliantly knocked down by a camera wire.
The thing to watch for this week is Carr’s pinkie finger: is it healing
after a 10-day layoff? While the
Chargers have a beatable pass D, they also lead the league in
interceptions. They’re capable of exploiting
slopping QB play, making Carr an extraordinarily risky QB at his current #6
ranking.
I’ve learned too many times not to underestimate Tom Brady (#7 QB), but
the path to beating Denver is on the ground, where the defending Super Bowl
champs are yielding 127+ yards per game (fourth most in the NFL). On the other side of the ball, Denver’s
anemic running game and barely mediocre passing attack should keep the Patriots
content to grind it out with LeGarrette Blount, James White, and Dion Lewis,
leaving Brady to choose his spots.
Expecting top 12-16 numbers for the guy who never fails to amaze, but
who will take a back seat in fantasy this week.
Underrated:
This makes little sense on its face, but I’m bullish about Tyrod Taylor
(#10 QB). And it’s not only because he’s
playing the Browns at home. Three days
ago Rex Ryan remarked “We’ll see” when asked whether Taylor will keep
starting. While he backtracked on the
comment the next day, Taylor’s back is against the wall. Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Charles Clay
are healthy for only the second time all season (Clay was on the field early
this year but wasn’t close to 100%). And
the Buffalo weather is projected to be mild.
I view Taylor as a must-start fantasy QB at a time when must-start QBs
are hard to find. 275+ passing yards,
50+ rushing yards, and 3+ TDs.
Dak Prescott (#15 QB) is also feeling some heat, courtesy of masterful(ly
bad) tactician Jerry Jones, who earlier this week remarked, “You’ll know it
when you see it” regarding the possibility Tony Romo replaces a healthy Prescott. So let’s put some perspective on Prescott:
the rookie had racked up nine straight multi-TD games until running into the
Vikings and Giants on the road. Futility
forgiven. He’s now facing the Bucs at
home. This will be a top 8 performance
with top 3 upside.
I never thought Matt Barkley (#24) would be relevant this season, but I
also never thought I’d agree to try watching Gilmore Girls with my wife. Strange times. Alshon Jeffery’s return and Marquess Wilson’s
possible return would give Barkley more good receivers than he can handle—which
comes at a great time against a Packers pass D that’s giving up a league-high
8.0 yards per pass, along with 25 passing TDs (fourth highest). Barkley is a must-start two-QB-league option
and a terrific flyer in one-QB leagues.
Finally, early reports show no major weather issues this weekend. As we were reminded of this past weekend, bad
weather often matters.