Yesterday’s nightcap featured two teams that are one very good QB away
from Super Bowl contention. Of course,
it’s more complex than that. Kansas
City’s Alex Smith is the competent former 49er castoff who limits turnovers and
picks his spots. His 59-25-1 (.700)
record these past six seasons give him a long leash as the Chiefs’ unquestioned
starter. But in reality, his job is to
let the running game and defense do what they do best.
If you look closely at Smith’s career numbers, you’ll see per-game stats
eerily on par with mediocre talents of the past, like Chad Pennington and, to
some extent, Matt Schaub. Pennington and
Schaub weren’t viewed as “winners” (though four of Pennington’s teams reached
the playoffs). For most of their
careers, the two were easily replaceable QBs who were simply better than their
backups.
Many perceive Smith to be better.
Some would say much better. But
quarterbacking is highly situational.
You put Smith in a Broncos uniform behind a lacking o-line, and the
gloss of adequacy would wear off. For
example, his career 6.8 passing yards per attempt are worse than Trevor Siemien’s,
Pennington’s, and Schaub’s. Those
numbers wouldn’t improve when facing more defensive pressure and owning a nonexistent
running attack.
I’m not here to knock Smith, who’s found the perfect home for his
talents. But perspective is
important. As bad a Peyton Manning
played last season (and he was awful), he won another Super Bowl, thanks to a
strong running game and elite defense.
Smith’s skillset doesn’t make the Chiefs dangerous; rather, his
abilities ensure Kansas City won’t (usually) succumb to QB mistakes.
It’s why I’ve made it a habit not to trust Smith in fantasy. In six of his last 13 games, he’s scored
fewer fantasy points than the Chiefs DST.
Starting him—and winning with him—is worse than a coin flip. So congrats if you started him yesterday and
won. You’re braver and smarter than I
am.
In other news, Ezekiel Elliott reportedly will try to break Eric
Dickerson’s rookie rushing record. From
a fantasy perspective, this will make many managers happy (and many of his manager
opponents sad). But the complexion of a
player and his team change when records are being chased. The Lions know they’re facing a team with
only one hurdle remaining—not a win, but a rushing record.
Dallas should be resting its players.
Elliott might break many records throughout his career. This doesn’t have to be one of them. Jerry Jones’ publicly stated view is that
about 10 years ago Dallas rested its players and lost in the playoffs. So he’s learned from that mistake, which is
complete nonsense. I get that some teams
want to stay fresh for the postseason.
But the NFL is an injury factory.
And Detroit needs a win. And the
Cowboys want to run their rookie into the record records. And those three things are a recipe for
regret.