Every NFL Sunday feels like a childhood Christmas. Except Week 17, which feels like the morning
after.
Here’s my rundown of each Sunday team’s most notable fantasy storyline:
Browns – A few weeks ago I started pushing Duke Johnson as Cleveland’s
better backfield option. Simply put, I
was wrong then, and I was wrong the week after.
The problem: not enough touches.
Yesterday he got more a bit more involved and racked up more yards than
all of teammates not named RGIII. In a
home matchup against the Chargers next week, Johnson is positioned to help a
manager win a title as an RB2/3.
Bills – Tyrod Taylor’s dream fantasy playoff schedule continued to net
him low-end QB1 numbers. With everyone
healthy, he’ll remain a very underrated top 14 QB heading into next season.
Packers – Ty Montgomery.
Wow. Maybe Green Bay can afford
to let Eddie Lacy walk this offseason.
Bears – A few weeks ago I urged readers to dump Alshon Jeffery in most
leagues. Historical numbers aside, the
QB situation and run-focused offense made him a risky receiver. But he came through yesterday, so put that in
my “wrong” column. If he lands in the
right place next season he’ll have mid-range WR1 upside—though with Gronk-like
injury risks.
Steelers – Remember when Big Ben had 15 TDs thru five games this
season? Me neither. He has 11 in seven games since returning from
injury. He’s barely startable in Week 16.
Bengals – Rex Burkhead continues to run better than Jeremy Hill, but
Hill continues to earn more fantasy love.
Usually these things start to level out, and I don’t mean Hill suddenly
returning to elite form.
Titans – The backfield dominated against stiff competition. In Jacksonville next week, DeMarco Murray and
Derrick Henry will be on RB1 and RB2 radars, respectively.
Chiefs – Jeremy Maclin finally reassumed Kansas City’s #1 WR role, but
Tyreek Hill outperformed him on one play.
The Chiefs’ offense is good enough to have two—and usually no more than
two—fantasy contributors each week. Hill
has less room for error, but is clearly will remain the preferred WR fantasy
option in Week 16.
Colts – Robert Turbin poached two scores, but Frank Gore is now in
reach of his ninth 1,000-yard rushing season.
He’s been a weekly RB1 with only occasional downside. This preseason his average RB draft position
was only 26th; on my draft board, he wasn’t much better at #22). Three years ago I thought he was over the
hill. So there’s that.
Vikings – I was vocal all week about benching Adrian Peterson. Couldn’t have screamed it any louder, and
reiterated it in 30 or more sit-start questions (the only time I recommended
him was when Chris Monterosa asked me to choose between AP and Isaiah Crowell;
Crowell ended up outscoring AP 2-0). Jerick McKinnon has earned more yards per
carry than AP in each of his three NFL seasons, and is far more effective in
the passing game. As bad as McKinnon has
been (because of the offensive line), AP wasn’t going to be any better coming
off a three-month hiatus.
Lions – Matthew Stafford was hindered Week 14 because of an intra-game
dislocated finger. It’s why I didn’t
recommend Stafford on any of the 50 or so “Should I start Stafford or . . .”
questions last week. A healthy Stafford
remains a locked-in QB1.
Giants – The nearly 32-year-old Rashad Jennings’ efficiency has
steadily declined, with diminishing yards per carry in each of his last five
games. In case there’s any doubt, Paul
Perkins will be the Giants’ starting RB next season.
Eagles – Carson Wentz’s brutally inefficient rookie season continued. It’ll be a learning process. But fantasy managers don’t have to suffer
through it when there are plenty of better options out there.
Ravens – It was Terrance West’s turn to dominate, though Kenneth Dixon
wasn’t too shabby. Their next two games
are in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
Yesterday marked the last great game of 2016 for each of them.
Jaguars – Blake Bortles, despite his and Jacksonville’s dismal season,
entered Week 15 ranked 11th in fantasy QB points. Hard to believe, I know. He’s now likely to finish as a mid-range QB2,
cratering when two-QB leaguers and desperate one-QB managers needed him most.
Texans – Tony Romo would be an amazing fit in Houston next season: a
great running game, terrific receivers, and a solid defense. Just think how much better the 8-6 Texans
would be if Brock Osweiler and his one-TD-per-game clip were the team’s backup.
Saints – Never give up on talent.
I’ve written this sentiment any number of ways all season. Brandin Cooks was last year’s 12th
highest scoring fantasy WR and entered Sunday’s game tied for 11th. His downside is Drew Brees’ propensity to
spread the wealth. His upside is that he
can almost singlehandedly win fantasy titles.
Cardinals – J.J. Nelson now has four TDs in his past three games and six
in his last seven. I’ve pushed him hard
several times during that stretch, including heading into Sunday. Those who can keep guys like him for, say, a
14th rounder should start making plans. He’ll be a WR3/4 next year with some big-game
ability.
Patriots – Julian Edelman was clear-and-above Tom Brady’s #1 receiver
yesterday. A WR2 in recent years,
Edelman has had to battle for attention in a packed receiver corps. With Gronk and Amendola sidelined and
Martellus Bennett struggling, Edelman is once again the top dog in this passing
attack.
Broncos – It’s a tale of two teams: an elite defense and two top
25-caliber receivers (with the right personnel around them), and a QB and RBs
not ready for prime time—though some would argue that a better offensive line would
fix everything. There’s plenty of room
for debate around this team. What’s
undebatable is that the coaching staff has apparently seen enough of Devontae
Booker this season, as he was out-touched 14-8 by Justin Forsett—that rare RB
who’s cut by two teams and then somehow earns the trust of a third team.
49ers – Colin Kaepernick played surprisingly decently. Bit by bit, he’s firming up his grip on the 2017
starting job despite a dearth of receiving talent.
Falcons – Despite my going big on Tevin Coleman heading into Week 15,
the second-year RB was left in the dust by Devonta Freeman’s brilliant
performance. Similar to Baltimore, this
backfield is impossible to predict. But
unlike Baltimore, in Atlanta we’re dealing with far more fantasy upside.
Raiders – Derek Carr’s injury limited him and everyone around him. If he can get back to full health by this
weekend, he’ll be a mid-range QB1 when fantasy managers need him most.
Chargers – Kenneth Farrow was an absolute bust. This is the corollary to my “retain and hold
onto RB handcuffs” strategy. Some
handcuffs aren’t ready to carry the load and end up hurting fantasy managers more
than they help.
Buccaneers – Mike Evans is that rare elite fantasy player who nosedives
in the fantasy playoffs. In fact, in his
last three games his targets (average: 7), receptions (average: 4), and fantasy
points (average: 5) have plummeted compared to the rest of the year. That this has happened while facing two of
the NFL’s four worst passing defenses is inexplicable—except it isn’t. In most cases, opposing defenses have been
able to clamp down on Evans, thanks to a two-dimensional offense featuring
Cameron Brate and not much else, including an inefficient running game. Evans has become a victim of his own success,
and Tampa Bay—coming off five straight wins before last night—hadn’t figured
out how to adjust.
Cowboys – Dak Prescott was severely undervalued this past week, as
readers of this page knew for days.
Rarely is a quarterback so effective from a fantasy perspective (fifth
most points) without throwing for a TD.
But yardage and good running (including a rushing score) reminded
doubters that Prescott remains a solid QB1.