A day late, but here’s each Sunday (and Monday) team’s most impactful Week
14 fantasy storyline:
Steelers – Le’Veon Bell single-handedly delivered victories to perhaps
millions of fantasy footballers around the globe. The more interesting narrative, though, is
Ben Roethlisberger’s stark production gap when playing at home vs. on the
road. In Buffalo Sunday he tossed three
interceptions without registering a TD.
In the last three seasons he owns a 22/22 TD/INT ratio on the road and
56/14 at home.
Bills – Sammy Watkins’ dream fantasy playoff schedule (home games
against the Steelers, Browns, and Dolphins) begins with 54 yards and a
score. He’ll be a WR1/2 these next two
weeks.
Bengals – Tyler Eifert scared off enough fantasy drafters this summer
to make him, on average, the ninth TE off the board. He now has four TDs in his last three games
and is a locked-in weekly elite TE.
Browns – Compared to Josh McCown, Robert Griffin III makes everyone
around him worse. No offense to RGIII
(pun intended). In his 24 regular season
games since the start of the 2013 season, he has 22 TDs and 28 turnovers. Chew on that when considering his 2017
prospects.
Bears – In Week 13 it was Joshua Bellamy’s turn. Sunday, Cameron Meredith led the way. With Alshon Jeffery returning, you could flip
a three-sided coin and hope it lands on that week’s fantasy relevant
wideout. But through it all, Jordan
Howard remains the one constant—the NFC North’s most consistent RB/WR/TE contributor.
Lions – I went big on Matthew Stafford before Sunday’s game (4+ TDs),
but he only got halfway there. The
reason likely were torn ligaments and a joint dislocation in the middle finger
of his throwing hand, forcing him to wear a glove in the final three
quarters. With a road matchup against
the Giants (only 13 passing TDs given up) next, every Lion receiver would take
a moderate-to-significant fantasy hit if Stafford’s still ailing.
Broncos – Denver ran the ball only nine times Sunday. Devontae Booker led the backfield with 1.1
fantasy points. Neither he nor Justin
Forsett will be startable next week against the Patriots, as should be obvious
to everyone.
Titans – It was Tennessee’s blistering running game vs. Denver’s
inefficient passing game. DeMarco Murray
won. The Titans will be a matchup
nightmare if they reach the playoffs: a high-functioning passing game, a
high-powered running game, and an underrated defense. Murray has double-digit fantasy points in all
but one game this year. He’s the engine
that keeps this offense on track.
Texans – Lamar Miller got back on track, and just in time for patient
fantasy managers. Of course, the Colts
are among the league’s worst against the run.
Fortunately, his next two contests will be at home against comparably
beatable run defenses.
Colts – With Indianapolis’s playoff prospects on life support, Donte
Moncrief was knocked out with a hamstring injury. This season the third-year receiver has
scored in all six games he’s finished.
If he misses Week 15, keep an eye on whether Phillip Dorsett or Chester
Rosters starts in his place.
Cardinals – Another week, another underwhelming ugame for Carson
Palmer. He’s barely startable next week
against the Saints and should be dropped before Week 16’s contest in Seattle.
Dolphins – Early reports suggested Ryan Tannehill will miss the rest of
the regular season. Journeyman Matt
Moore would take the reins of a potential playoff team. Expect a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi, more
support from Damien Williams, and huge downgrades for receivers Jarvis Landry
and DeVante Parker.
Redskins – The NFL’s biggest boom-bust fantasy receiver went boom for
the third time in four weeks Sunday.
DeSean Jackson now has five WR1/2 performances on the year while being
irrelevant in all others. A very
slightly more targeted version of Ted Ginn, DJax is worth the risk next week
against Carolina.
Eagles – Wendell Smallwood’s knee injury gives a big boost to Ryan
Mathews, who goes from “leader in a crowded backfield” to “clear lead back.”
Chargers – Melvin Gordon’s untimely hip injury was a boon for Kenneth
Farrow and the two people who started him.
While Farrow didn’t run very well, his 22 touches suggest San Diego
trusts him with the ball. If he’s the
clear frontrunner for carries against the porous Raiders run D, expect RB2+
numbers. But keep an eye on Ronnie
Hillman, who could poach carries out of the gate.
Panthers – Cam Newton completed 10 passes, the team gained only 3.3
yards per carry, yet Carolina posted 28 points.
A statistical oddity. But if
you’re in a dynasty league, there are few better bargains than Cam, for whom
this entire season has been a statistical oddity.
Saints – Fantasy’s (former) #1 QB is mired in a two-game funk (zero
TDs, six INTs). This is the absurdity
and unpredictability of fantasy football in a nutshell: even the most seasoned,
dominant talents are not immune to unforeseeable slumps.
Buccaneers – Charles Sims returned with 50 yards on seven touches. Yet another Bucs RB who’s playing better than
Doug Martin (minus the TDs). Tampa Bay
should give Sims more run as the season wraps up.
Jets – This preseason I viewed Matt Forte as overrated and Bilal Powell
as undervalued: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/07/bold-predictions-11-and-12-bilal-powell.html. My Forte call looks pretty bad. But his early exit Sunday opened the door for
Powell’s monster performance (179 yards on 34 touches). If Forte misses time, Powell will be on the
RB1 map in Week 15.
49ers – Entering Week 14, the Jets had a top 3 run D. Then San Francisco—led by Carlos
Hyde—compiled 248 yards on 27 carries (9.2 YPC). If the Niners can upgrade either its QB or
defense this offseason, Hyde could be a top 3 fantasy RB.
Vikings – Kyle Rudolph posted 60 yards and a score. He’s knocking on the doorstep of elite TE
production. Admittedly, I never imagined
this could happen.
Jaguars – It might be tempting to start T.J. Yeldon next week in
Houston is Chris Ivory sits again. But
he probably match Sunday’s 90-yard performance.
He’s an inefficient runner in a lacking offense. Look elsewhere for an RB2.
Seahawks – Urged a lot of people to sit Thomas Rawls after his breakout
Week 13 performance. He’s a situational
RB, just like Seattle is situationally good.
Next week against the Rams, Rawls and his teammates will go back to
dominating.
Packers – Davante Adams’ final preseason ADP was WR-72. That means he was, on average, the 72nd
wide receiver drafted in popular online leagues (ESPN, CBS Sports, etc.) in the
days leading up to Week 1. He’s a near
lock to be a WR1 this year and could finish in the top five.
Falcons – My relatively high expectations of Tevin Coleman this past
week were not as high as his two-TD output.
Devonta Freeman took a backseat, muddling this backfield after many
weeks of clarity.
Rams – Todd Gurley scored for the second time since Week 5. That pretty much sums that up—though Coach
Jeff Fisher’s firing gives Gurley a slight boost in dynasty leagues.
Cowboys – Their loss last night means there’s virtually no risk a key
fantasy contributor will sit Week 16—that the team will still be fighting for
the NFC’s #1 seed. It’s great news for
guys like Dez Bryant, who was neutralized against the Giants, but who should
secure WR1 numbers in weeks 15 and 16 against the Bucs and Lions.
Giants – I’ve been right about Eli Manning most of the season, but I
picked the wrong week to go big (predicting 3+ TDs). He was a flat-out liability. Fortunately for fantasy managers, his
remaining fantasy playoff schedule will keep him in the low-end QB1
conversation.
Ravens – Kenneth Dixon out-touched Terrance West 19-6 and out-snapped him 42-14. Some people might mistake this as "Dixon is now Baltimore's lead back." Keep in mind this was the first time Baltimore's played catch-up all game since Dixon returned from his preseason injury--and Dixon is better in the passing game. In next week's game against Philly, either guy could step up.
Patriots – On a night when nearly every Belichickian earned fantasy love, Dion Lewis earned only four touches and was outplayed by the highly unpredictable James White (five touches). Lewis's 4.6 YPC is meaningless in this world. There are too many mouths to feed to make this complementary RB worth starting the rest of the way.