Mistakes vs. Bad Luck, and Underrated Week 14 RBs

If you started Latavius Murray or Tyreek Hill last night, you deserve to feel great about the start of Week 14.  Travis Kelce and the Chiefs DST?  Pretty good.  Nearly everyone else?  Rough.  I started Amari Cooper and started getting a bad feeling midway through the first quarter.

But the thing about fantasy football is you never know when a big play will turn everything around.  The final line reads five catches for 29 yards.  Yet a bizarre non-catch (Cooper was open; the throw was basically accurate) cost the Raiders a chance to tie the game, and cost Cooper what likely would have been another 72 yards and a score—giving him a very healthy 16 fantasy points in standard leagues.  Derek Carr, meanwhile, would have jumped to 14 points, and with a potential two-point conversion and overtime looming, could have tacked on more.

This is the first “what if” scenario I’ve raised on this page in a year or two.  I hate discussing what-if’s.  What happens on the field happens.  No excuses.  But occasionally it’s useful to make sense of good or bad production—to put some perspective on whether, if given the chance to do it over again, we’d start the same guy.  Did we make a mistake?  Or was it bad luck?  With bad luck, I move on quickly.  But mistakes stick with me long after the game.  If Carr and Cooper could have replicated that play later in the game, and if somehow I’d been given the choice of replacing Cooper with a guy on the bench with the ball in mid-flight, I would have taken my chances on Cooper catching it.

So a tough start to my first-round playoff matchup.  But I can live with my decision, which as most of you know is a decent consolation when things don’t go our way.

A few thoughts on Week 14’s underrated RBs, especially if you’re hurting for a plug-in:

Theo Riddick (#22 ESPN Week 14 RB) mustered about eight fantasy points last week but endured his least efficient game of the season.  In a game where I’m predicting 4+ TDs for Matthew Stafford, Riddick’s prolific passing game role makes him a must-start RB.

Tevin Coleman (#25) will thrive if Julio Jones sits or is clearly less than 100%.  That’s the caveat.

Bilal Powell (#36) is an interesting pick, especially in PPR.  San Francisco statistically owns the NFL’s worst run D.  Forget about Powell’s one-carry-for-three-yards performance a few days ago.  He’s a far more integral part of this offense, and should be counted on to contribute 10+ touches while supporting a rookie QB.

Derrick Henry (#42) – We know what the Broncos do to opposing passing games.  It’s their run game that’s lacking.  I’m expecting 12+ touches for Henry, as Tennessee uses their one-two punch in the backfield to wear down the Broncos.  Henry is one of the league’s most talented RBs; all he needs is a little volume.

Jacquizz Rodgers (#46) – The Bucs can’t be happy with their running game, which is another way of saying they can’t be happy with Doug Martin’s 3.0 YPC.  With Rodgers back, don’t be surprised if Martin’s bell-cow role is taken away.  I’d take a chance on Rodgers as an RB3 if your options are few.