Assessing Week 15 Prospects for Adrian Peterson, Kenneth Farrow, Bilal Powell, and LeGarrette Blount
Adrian Peterson is one of several guys dominating FF4W discussions this
week. Many of you have asked what I
think of his fantasy prospects this week and next. So today let’s zoom in on four RBs generating
a ton of conversation on this page: AP, Kenneth Farrow, Bilal Powell, and LeGarrette
Blount.
Many of you read my thoughts about AP this preseason, when over several
days I laid out why he was brutally overrated at his RB-3 average draft
position, and why I was ranking him lower than every expert in the known fantasy
universe:
While Jerick McKinnon hasn’t broken out as expected, AP looked far
worse in a workhorse role weeks 1 and 2.
The legendary RB is now expected to play Sunday against the Colts. Expecting RB3+ numbers is farfetched, unless
the Vikings feed him the ball 20+ times.
And yes, that could happen, given that the Vikings loss this week would
essentially knock them out of the playoffs (more on that in a moment).
So starting AP is betting on him returning to a workhorse role in his
first game back. I wouldn’t make that
bet. Expect some rust. Expect the offensive line to continue
struggling. And possibly expect the
Colts to put up enough points in the first half to force Minnesota into pass-first
catch-up mode, where AP isn’t as comfortable.
This week I’d rather take a chance on Mike Gillislee, Kenneth Dixon,
and even Dwayne Washington assuming Theo Riddick sits. And next week looks no better for Peterson in
Green Bay against a tough Packers run D.
Despite the big name, he’ll likely produce small numbers (3-5 fantasy
points per game).
Kenneth Farrow’s Week 15 potential hinges on Ronnie Hillman’s
usage. Hillman has been exposed this
season as a middling complementary RB with a low ceiling. Assuming Farrow touches the ball 15-20 times
(realistic), he’s a sure-fire RB3 with RB2 upside. They key is not to expect a blow-up
game. The rookie is serviceable, and
just like most serviceable RBs, he needs volume to be startable.
Will Matt Forte play tonight, and if so, how much? Let’s put this in perspective: the Jets are
actively game-planning recent non-starters (Bryce Petty and Robby Anderson) to
assess the quality of their assets heading into 2017. What do they have to gain starting the injured
31-year-old Forte in a meaningless game, unless they plan to throw everything
and the kitchen sink at a divisional rival they’d probably enjoy knocking out
of playoff contention? If Forte is
active, I’ll view Bilal Powell as an RB3 with massive upside (not sure how many
snaps Forte would even play). If Forte
sits, Powell is a must-start top 16 RB with the same massive upside.
LeGarrette Blount is a tricky call this week. While Denver’s run D is exploitable, Blount’s
nearly-every-week RB1 status is driven by his repeated goal-line usage,
culminating in 14 TDs. He’s irrelevant
in the passing game and barely average 4.1 YPC make him a high-floor
RB2/3. The TD ride seemingly could go on
forever. But of course it won’t, and I
believe Denver’s D will rise to the occasion.