Happy Thanksgiving. Hope you
have a fantasy stake in all three games today.
But don’t force it; Sam Bradford can wait.
Here are some Turkey Day QB storylines I’m tracking:
Lions vs. Vikings – Finally, a Thursday game in Detroit that
matters. The winner will assume sole
possession of first place in the NFC North.
The Lions will win. Sam Bradford
doesn’t stand a chance. 12 fantasy
points at most, thanks to three turnovers.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has only four TDs in his last four
contests. For perspective, his career
average is nearly 1.8—a shade better than Dan Marino’s and about .15 worse than
Tom Brady’s. Adjustments will be made,
even against a defense yielding the fourth fewest passing yards per game. In fact, the Vikings’ last four opponents
have averaged a healthy 233 yards through the air and 1.8 passing TDs. That’s around where I’m putting Stafford: 240
and a couple scores.
Cowboys vs. Redskins – Probably the most anticipated matchup in years
for this top 10 sports rivalry. Dak
Prescott has double-digit TDs in each of his eight past games. For Kirk Cousins, the streak is seven of
eight. Cousins is historically much
better at home (100.3 QBR) than on the road (86.9 QBR), and we’ll see that play
out today. Expect a three-TD performance
for Prescott and a one-TD effort for Cousins, as Dallas wins by at least two
scores.
Colts vs. Steelers – With Andrew Luck in the concussion protocol, Scott
Tolzien is expected to lead Indianapolis’s passing attack. The “Fellow from Rolling Meadows” (my
nickname for him; trademark it) is obviously an incredibly steep downgrade,
even when facing one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. Tolzien will be forced to throw due to
Pittsburgh’s relentless passing attack, which was stifled this past weekend by
30 MPH winds. I think Tolzien will
scrape together 150 yards and two scores, thanks to T.Y. Hilton and a
surprising Phillip Dorsett. Ben Roethlisberger
will earn his paycheck on the other side of the ball, tossing for 350+ yards
and at least three touchdowns.
Some deeper-dive players I like today:
While Anquan Boldin’s stellar career is precipitously winding down, he’ll
be startable today in PPR leagues and is a desperation standard-league
play. Lockdown corner Xavier Rhodes is
expected to shadow Marvin Jones, likely giving Boldin a more prominent role
than usual. I like him for 7+ catches
for 60+ yards; a score would be gravy.
Assuming Stefon Diggs sits, Adam Thielen is everyone’s favorite
sleeper. So let’s look a bit deeper:
Cordarrelle Patterson is in the Boldin camp: good for about 5-7 catches and
50-70 yards. The more interesting
storyline is rookie Laquon Treadwell, who’s expected to start. Minnesota’s first round pick this year has huge
potential next season if he’s starting every week opposite Diggs. If you play DFS and have long wanted to throw
a buck at a scenario where the dirt-cheap Treadwell racks up 80 yards and a TD,
this is the week to try it.
Elsewhere, the hit-or-miss Eli Rogers will be a “hit” this week, while Jason
Witten will get a red-zone score.