Week 12 Preview: Scott Tolzien, Matt Barkley, and Bargain DSTs

My family and I are on the road again today, leaving Missouri around 7:00 a.m. and pulling into North Carolina by nightfall.  So once again I’m writing this the night before and will look to some of you to pick up the slack answering questions.

Looking ahead to Week 12, Scott Tolzien and the Colts’ passing game is one of the biggest storylines to watch.  Andrew Luck is likely to sit due to concussion symptoms.  This is where lineups can shift dramatically.  Do you trust T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief?  Tolzien has a 1/5 TD/INT career mark and hasn’t started a game in three years.  I’ve been viewing Hilton as a WR3, largely because the Steelers should score 24+ points.  If Indianapolis were facing the Bears or Rams, I’d anticipate a conservative game plan featuring a lot of Frank Gore and a decent dose of Robert Turbin.  Against Pittsburgh, Tolzien will be forced to throw more than Indy wants him to.  He’ll be better than many fear—making Hilton worth the risk—but worse than others hope (making Moncrief a TD-dependent risk).

Jay Cutler might sit for the rest of the season with a potentially torn labrum.  As if things weren’t bad enough for the Jeffery-less, Miller-less, White-less, Wilson-less, Hoyer-less Bears.  The Matt Barkley Era that I so arrogantly predicted was finished after one game now appears to be back on track.  Maybe Barkley will prove me wrong.  But he probably won’t.  In fact, if named the starter for these final six games, Barkley probably won’t exceed 150 yards and one TD per game.  It means Jordan Howard will get more than he can handle if Chicago’s defense can keep them competitive.  And it means the Week 14 Lions will be one of the best streaming DSTs you can find in the fantasy playoffs.

Speaking of DSTs, Week 12 is chock full of several options you might find on waivers.  The Saints are at home against the NFL’s worst offense (the Rams).  Despite netting the third fewest fantasy points among all DSTs, New Orleans is a terrific flyer.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins are unowned in more than 30% of ESPN leagues despite having the ninth most fantasy points.  As many of you know, while they were universally viewed as a bottom-third DST this preseason, this site pushed them as a DST1.  A home tilt versus the Niners will help cement their near-elite standing.

Finally, the Bills DST have even more fantasy points than the Dolphins but are unowned in 55% of ESPN leagues.  Make sense?  Of course not.  Buffalo should perform well at home against Jacksonville and, with Cleveland and Miami in weeks 15 and 16, should be owned on every playoff-bound fantasy team.