As many of you are probably feeling right now, this is an unusually
tough week to prognosticate. It’s the
first time since Week 3 that all 32 teams are playing, so there are more “good”
options than we’ve seen in a while.
Three Thanksgiving games have forced many people (me included) to make
several lineup decisions early in the week—before we know whether other
rostered guys are healthy enough to thrive Sunday/Monday. And injuries and depth chart shifts continue
to shake up backfields and call into question whether certain starters are on
their way down.
With that in mind, here are some sharply overrated and underrated RBs heading
into today’s games.
Overrated:
Jay Ajayi (ESPN’s 2nd ranked Week 12 RB) – While it’s a
dream matchup, Miami is missing two key offensive linemen and a third (Laremy
Tunsil) is playing with a torn shoulder muscle.
Ajayi has proven to be an incredible midseason addition. But running behind backups knocks him down to
a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2.
Spencer Ware (7th ranked RB) is a trap play this week. He hasn’t scored a rushing TD in four games
while running far worse (4.2 YPC) during that span than in his previous five
games (5.3 YPC). Denver’s run D has been
bad, but I believe they’ll step up big-time in a huge intra-divisional matchup.
LeGarrette Blount (9th ranked RB) – Few RBs have done more
with a lower YPC (4.0). As I wrote last
week, he’s a regression waiting to happen.
This is the week it begins. New
England’s core contributors are healthy.
The Jets have one of the NFL’s toughest run Ds. Playing the percentages, do the unthinkable and
bench the 12-carries-for-44-yards-and-no-TDs Blount.
Underrated:
Wendell Smallwood (23rd ranked RB) – In fairness to ESPN,
Ryan Mathews might have still been questionable when they made these
rankings. Still, the writing was on the
wall: Smallwood has a good shot to be Philly’s starting RB next season. He’s a locked-in RB2 with terrific upside.
Chris Ivory (24th ranked RB) is likely to carry the load
this week. Assuming T.J. Yeldon sits,
Ivory should be good for top 16 numbers.
Duke Johnson (30th ranked RB) – I’m doubling down on Duke
this week after I got him wrong last week.
Surely the Browns see his value and will utilize him on the ground and
in the air in a game they can win (yes, they can win this).
Good luck today.