Thoughts on Mike Evans, and Free Agent Friday: Davante Adams, C.J. Prosise, Corey Coleman, Patriots DST
Owning a WR-12 average draft position this preseason, Mike Evans was one
of my FF4W bold predictions: a top 6 WR with 1,400 yards and 12+ TDS. Halfway through the season, he’s on pace for
1,490 and 16.
I always try to apply logic to predictions. Sometimes the logic is flawed, while other times
extenuating circumstances (for example, injuries) interfere. But coming off a drop-filled 2015 season that
forced him into WR3 territory, the 22-year-old Evans had all the talent of a
Hall-of-Famer in the making. Past stats
were meaningless. The stories behind the
stats told us everything we needed to know:
What stories can we apply to Free Agent Friday? Davante Adams (available in 22% of ESPN
leagues) has been heralded for two years.
In 2014 he was blocked by Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb playing at the
top of their games (combining for an incredible 2,800+ yards and 25 TDs). Last season he caught only 53% of his targets
and endured six drops. This year, with
Randall Cobb ailing and a questionable running game, Adams is a must-own WR and
a must-start WR in every league when Cobb sits (and many leagues even when Cobb
plays). Adams is turning a corner this
season.
Christine Michael earned a season-low 11 touches this past weekend. Anomaly, or a sign of what’s to come? If you trust Seahawks Head Coach Pete
Carroll, who said that rookie C.J. Prosise “will be a lot more involved” going
forward, then yes, it’s cause for concern if you’re leaning on Michael for the
stretch run. While I like Michael this
week as an RB2/3, his stock is starting to drop, if only slightly. Available in 82% of ESPN leagues, Prosise is becoming
a terrific PPR flyer and a worthwhile bye-week dart throw.
I’ve mentioned Corey Coleman many times. The highly touted rookie is expected to
return Sunday after six missed games. The
downside is Cody Kessler could replace Josh McCown at QB. The upside is that Coleman has WR2 upside—not
bad for a guy who’s sitting on waivers in 53% of ESPN leagues. Note that Terrelle Pryor’s breakout WR1
season will experience a dip, making the versatile 27-year-old one of the
biggest sell-high receivers in fantasy.
The Patriots DST is officially struggling, averaging only two fantasy
points in its last three games. They’ve forced
two turnovers in the past five games.
But look at their remaining schedule after Week 10’s contests against
the Seahawks: 49ers, Jets, Rams, Ravens, Broncos, Jets. In 34% of ESPN leagues you can pick up this
unit for free. For free! Folks, improving your team doesn’t get much
easier than that.