In this edition of the Tuesday Trader, I want to focus on two teams’ WRs with a lot of activity just below the surface (and a little in plain view).
This week I’m actively trying to unload Allen Hurns and, to a lesser extent (because few would want him in my 14-team league), Marqise Lee. Meanwhile, I’m trying to trade for Tyrell Williams and am hoping to add Dontrelle Inman off waivers.
FF4W Season Pass subscribers know what I’m getting at. They saw my latest player valuations last night that showed a sharp downturn in Jax WR values and an uptick in Charger WR values. What a player is worth changes every week and sometimes every day. Savvy traders know precisely when and how to make offers to unsuspecting opponents.
I’m not talking about underhandedness. We don’t try to trade Arian Foster right after he announces his retirement. We want our post-trade success to appear lucky; that way, our opponents will chalk the result up to randomness and will keep taking our calls.
So I’m trying to trade Hurns for two reasons—one obvious and one less obvious. His 98-yard, one-TD performance Thursday was surprising given how ineffective the other wideouts were. Hurns rarely leads the Jaguars in receiving and, with a shaky Bortles behind center, isn’t likely to see that production again this year. My attempts to trade him appear to be not-so-veiled efforts to sell high. Fair enough, though I’m hoping someone processes his target rate (double-digit targets in three of six games) and history (low-end WR1 last season) and sees what I want them to see.
The less obvious factor is a team’s fantasy playoff schedule, which increases in importance every week and becomes downright critical right before a fantasy league’s trade deadline. Again, my Season Pass subscribers have known for a while that the Jags’ receivers’ fantasy playoff schedule is brutal: Vikings, @ Texans, Titans. These are three of the four stingiest passing yard defenses and three of the five stingiest passing TD defenses.
Based on probabilities, I don’t want to have to start Hurns in the fantasy playoffs. I’ll deserve all the emotional pain and suffering coming to me.
So I look to teams with easier fantasy playoff schedules, which aren’t hard to find. The Chargers are a good example: @ Panthers, Raiders, @ Browns. We’re talking about three of the seven worst D’s when it comes to passing yards and TDs yielded.
News yesterday that Travis Benjamin has a PCL injury and is seeking a second opinion immediately pushed Williams and Inman up a notch.
On a per-game basis, Hurns and Williams have nearly identical fantasy numbers this season. But looking beyond the numbers, Williams’ advantage—and to a lesser extent, Inman’s—are clear as day.
This week I’m actively trying to unload Allen Hurns and, to a lesser extent (because few would want him in my 14-team league), Marqise Lee. Meanwhile, I’m trying to trade for Tyrell Williams and am hoping to add Dontrelle Inman off waivers.
FF4W Season Pass subscribers know what I’m getting at. They saw my latest player valuations last night that showed a sharp downturn in Jax WR values and an uptick in Charger WR values. What a player is worth changes every week and sometimes every day. Savvy traders know precisely when and how to make offers to unsuspecting opponents.
I’m not talking about underhandedness. We don’t try to trade Arian Foster right after he announces his retirement. We want our post-trade success to appear lucky; that way, our opponents will chalk the result up to randomness and will keep taking our calls.
So I’m trying to trade Hurns for two reasons—one obvious and one less obvious. His 98-yard, one-TD performance Thursday was surprising given how ineffective the other wideouts were. Hurns rarely leads the Jaguars in receiving and, with a shaky Bortles behind center, isn’t likely to see that production again this year. My attempts to trade him appear to be not-so-veiled efforts to sell high. Fair enough, though I’m hoping someone processes his target rate (double-digit targets in three of six games) and history (low-end WR1 last season) and sees what I want them to see.
The less obvious factor is a team’s fantasy playoff schedule, which increases in importance every week and becomes downright critical right before a fantasy league’s trade deadline. Again, my Season Pass subscribers have known for a while that the Jags’ receivers’ fantasy playoff schedule is brutal: Vikings, @ Texans, Titans. These are three of the four stingiest passing yard defenses and three of the five stingiest passing TD defenses.
Based on probabilities, I don’t want to have to start Hurns in the fantasy playoffs. I’ll deserve all the emotional pain and suffering coming to me.
So I look to teams with easier fantasy playoff schedules, which aren’t hard to find. The Chargers are a good example: @ Panthers, Raiders, @ Browns. We’re talking about three of the seven worst D’s when it comes to passing yards and TDs yielded.
News yesterday that Travis Benjamin has a PCL injury and is seeking a second opinion immediately pushed Williams and Inman up a notch.
On a per-game basis, Hurns and Williams have nearly identical fantasy numbers this season. But looking beyond the numbers, Williams’ advantage—and to a lesser extent, Inman’s—are clear as day.