I hit a fair number of “who should I start” questions this weekend, but as often happens, missed badly on some big ones: James Starks came up huge, Jarvis Landry was irrelevant, and J.J. Nelson crashed back to earth. If outliers didn’t exist, sit/start questions wouldn’t need to be asked.
With that in mind, let’s look at yesterday’s most interesting fantasy implications—one player from each team:
Packers – The Davante Adams era is here. The problem is, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are signed through the 2018 season. Cobb was back to his old self the previous four games before Sunday’s letdown. It’ll be interesting to see whether Adams is now the #2 guy in Green Bay, or if Cobb’s hamstring was the main culprit. By the end of this month, we’ll probably know the answer.
Titans – Let’s take a moment to marvel at Marcus Mariota, who had four TDs and five INTs through his first four games. His ratio is 17/3 in his last six. Arguably no QB is playing better—a trend that’s likely to continue with Indy and Chicago in weeks 11 and 12.
Broncos – The buzz that Kapri Bibbs might seriously challenge Devontae Booker for touches was overstated. Booker earned nearly four times as many touches as his counterpart. While hardly confidence-inducing (3.2 YPC), Booker’s bell-cow status should be assured for at least one more game, as Bibbs racked up only 22 yards on seven carries (3.1 YPC).
Saints – Last week I urged readers to buy low on Willie Snead. For several weeks I’ve tried to secure him in my league. No luck. Yesterday he led New Orleans in targets and posted WR1 numbers. Never count out talent.
Rams – I also started pushing Benny Cunningham last week. The phrase “There’s something wrong with Todd Gurley” has been in several of my posts this season. While last year’s fantasy phenom plodded his way to 64 yards on 21 carries (3.0 YPC), his backup locked in 40 yards on six carries (6.7 YPC). With two dream fantasy playoff matchups awaiting the Rams, the question now is, if the team is out of the playoff hunt by Week 14, will Gurley be shelved with a “nagging injury,” letting Cunningham close out the season? Stranger things have happened. And one thing is for sure: Gurley deserves to be benched.
Jets – Robby Anderson and Bilal Powell accounted for 74% of the Jets’ receiving yards, which says everything about the state of this team. The 3-7 Jets are probably looking at a three-year rebuilding mode to get back to the playoffs. The player I’m thinking about most from a fantasy perspective is Brandon Marshall, whose targets and yardage continue to drop. I urged a lot of folks to bench him heading into Week 10. Nothing will be different after the bye in Week 12.
Falcons – Devonta Freeman was given the chance to run away with the starting job after Tevin Coleman got hurt. Three weeks later, Freeman has been solid, but not wholly impressive. A deceptively tough fantasy playoff schedule makes Freeman no better than an RB2/3 when Coleman returns.
Eagles – Ryan Mathews came out of nowhere to dominate. Limited to 11 touches in his last two games combined, the veteran enjoyed his best game in eons. I’ve been completely wrong about him this season. The Falcons are easy to beat up on, however. One look at his upcoming schedule would make any fantasy manager at least a bit concerned.
Bears – Head Coach John Fox said Jordan Howard suffered an ankle or Achilles’ injury during yesterday’s game. It potentially dampens what was another dominating performance from the rookie. Any absence by Howard would throw this backfield into turmoil, which is just what RB-needy managers want to hear.
Buccaneers – Doug Martin ran as poorly as expected, but a TD salvaged his fantasy day. I remain extremely doubtful that Martin can recapture last season’s magic. He’s a back-end RB3 at best and bench fodder at worst.
Chiefs – With Jeremy Maclin out, Tyreek Hill assumed the role of “primary receiver.” Kudos to those who grabbed him earlier. 13 targets is no fluke. He’ll be a WR2/3 against Tampa Bay in Week 11 if Maclin sits again.
Panthers – Carolina’s season essentially ended Sunday with a crushing home loss to Kansas City. It’s time to stop viewing Cam Newton as a near-elite QB—at least this season. After next week’s “take out all frustrations” matchup against the Saints, road games against the Raiders and Seahawks should keep Cam on most fantasy teams’ benches.
Dolphins – This preseason I proposed that a healthy DaVante Parker would give a healthy Jarvis Landry a run for his money. Parker looked healthy yesterday and was Ryan Tannehill’s most targeted receiver. Yes, Parker is relevant again.
Chargers – 29 more touches for Melvin Gordon. Although he’ll get the bye week to rest up, he’s on pace for 354 touches, which is a huge red flag in dynasty leagues.
Texans – I picked the wrong week to decide that DeAndre Hopkins would go off. Long skeptical of his 2016 potential, I had a moment of weakness yesterday morning with news that Will Fuller was inactive. Instead, Hopkins accumulated 48 yards on 13 targets, which is somewhere between “futile” and “abysmal.” I won’t make that mistake a second time.
Jaguars – T.J. Yeldon got more looks and more yardage than Chris Ivory, further complicating this backfield. Looks like a hot-hand RB tandem, which is painful for fantasy managers.
Vikings – Stefon Diggs is healthy and back on track with three successive solid outings. His fantasy prospects will live and die on the arm of one of the NFC’s least effective QBs, Sam Bradford. It’s why I wasn’t higher on Diggs earlier this season.
Redskins – Rob Kelley further solidified his lead-back role in Washington. I drafted him late in my 14-team league and dropped him after a couple weeks to make room for short-term contributors. Deep regret.
49ers – Colin Kaepernick now has back-to-back two-TD performances. By all accounts, he’s the best QB in San Francisco and is an adequate plug-in in two-QB leagues.
Cardinals – Carson Palmer should had had a better game Sunday. One TDs, two interceptions, and a lost fumble nearly cost Arizona the win. He has six TDs and 11 turnovers in his last six games. If his name weren’t Carson Palmer, people would wonder if he’d still be at the helm by season’s end.
Cowboys – Dez Bryant is a top 3 WR at his best. When healthy, and when a good QB is throwing to him, he’s that good. I tried to buy relatively low right before my league’s trade deadline, but there wasn’t enough time to negotiate. He will help patient fantasy managers reach the playoffs.
Steelers – Sammie Coates didn’t catch his only target and played only two offensive snaps. He now has one reception on 11 targets in his last four games. He should be abandoned in all fantasy leagues.
Seahawks – Last week, Christine Michael was “dangerously close to fantasy irrelevance.” Today, he’s irrelevant. C.J. Prosise (and eventually Thomas Rawls) will force Michael to wait ‘til 2017 to try to regain his footing.
Patriots – Julian Edelman lost a costly fumble—his second of the season but only the third of his career. New England’s entire offense is built on trust—trust that players won’t make mistakes. Edelman is one of Tom Brady’s top two targets until further notice. But fantasy managers are on notice that even someone with Edelman’s history can’t afford to make more mistakes.