With trade deadlines approaching, I’m working feverishly to improve
my team. Last week it was the
acquisition of Amari Cooper. Yesterday
it was trading for Julio Jones.
Today’s column focuses on the psychological component of fantasy
trading. Anyone who approaches this
stuff haphazardly will experience haphazard results. If you’re disciplined about which opponent
you contact when, and with what offer, you’re playing this the right way, and
your results will improve.
As many of you know, I play in a 14-team league comprised of fantasy
football writers. Six teams reach the
playoffs. The commissioner is Sports
Illustrated’s head fantasy writer. I’ve
played in a lot of leagues. This is a
very serious league. Some opponents have
never responded to my offers. Others are
pretty cool about it, telling me what they like or don’t like and encouraging
future dialogue. The whole time I’m
trying to identify their weak points so I can try to exploit them.
This is, by the way, why making fair trade offers is key. If I insult an opponent with something
clearly lopsided—even if I couch it with something like “Here’s an initial
offer to get the conversation going”—I might lose them for the season. If they know I’m trying to find a win-win
swap where we each improve in some way, trust solidifies, and we can start to
talk candidly about how to make a trade work.
Yesterday I targeted a guy who’s in eighth place at 4-4 and in the
midst of a three-game losing streak. His
once high-performing backfield of DeMarco Murray, Spencer Ware, and C.J.
Anderson was now a shell of its former self due to injuries. Needing to close out the season 4-1 to have a
shot at the playoffs, he was likely feeling desperate. With no high-impact guys on waivers, he was
probably feeling a bit defeated.
So I made an offer that I pitched as “I get Julio and hope he doesn’t
continue to be hit-or-miss. You get
three upgrades.” If you’re going to
explain a pitch, end it with something positive about what your opponent’s
getting. Kind of a “tell me the bad news
and then the good news” approach. He
accepted it in five minutes. At first
I thought, “That was too fast; what am I missing?” But I think it was a sign of how desperate he
was.
I’m getting Jones and three throwaway players (literally guys I plan
to drop immediately). He’s getting
Derrick Henry (probably the best RB handcuff, and a guy who’s expected to play a
larger role this week—remember, he already has DeMarco), Jameis Winston (his
best QB is Blake Bortles, so should be an upgrade), Allen Hurns (WR3, but with
a terrible playoff schedule), and Dontrelle Inman (could be a WR2/3 if Travis
Benjamin misses time, which yesterday seemed like a strong possibility).
He needed guys with low floors and relatively high ceilings to
replace injured players and declining talents like DeSean Jackson and (assuming
Kenneth Dixon takes on a bigger role) Terrance West. In his shoes, I would have worked harder all
season to convert overachievers like C.J. and Anquan Boldin and Terrance West
into longer term production. But he went
a different route. And it led to
desperation.
Of course, if Julio gets hurt and misses games, that trade will look
like a disaster. But we can’t think that
way. Identifying weaknesses and exploiting
them can make opponents act irrationally in wonderful ways. Sometimes it works. And when it doesn’t, we keep trying.