What do you do with an underperforming fantasy stud? Wait it out and hope he turns things around? Sell low and admit defeat?
The easy answers are to “just ride it out” or “cut your losses.” The harder answer is to figure out why this
supposedly elite positional player isn’t producing as expected. There are a lot of obvious factors to
consider, including:
- He’s playing hurt.
- He’s past his prime.
- There’s more competition.
- Defenses are deliberately trying to neutralize him.
- He’s making mental mistakes.
- His QB is creating limitations.
Let’s look a little deeper into these factors, using WRs as examples. Dez Bryant falls into the “playing hurt” category. A hairline fracture in his knee (and some believe it might be only a bone bruise) kept him out Week 4 and makes him questionable Week 5. It’s not considered to be a long-term injury, so if you can wait it out and stash him on your bench when needed, Dez is a must-hold WR. A top 8 positional talent, Bryant is a guy I’d love to grab from a desperate seller. Don’t be that desperate seller.
There aren’t any “past-their-prime” elite WRs this year. But a couple years ago you could look at
Steve Smith Sr. and think, “Ah, that might be why the 35-year-old is fading in
the second half of the season.” No knock
on Smith and his conditioning. But age
adds risk. When comparing a 35-year-old
WR2 and 25-year-old WR2, I’ll take the younger guy almost every time.
Increased competition is something to watch for if your elite WR is
struggling. Odell Beckham, Jr. is a
prime example. Rookie Sterling Shepard
and the (partially) reborn Victor Cruz give the Giants their most talented
receiving corps in years. The previous
two seasons, ODB has been the focal point of the offense, not only because he’s
an incredible player, but also because his biggest competition each year was
Rueben Randle, who—guess what—no team has signed this season. Part of the problem is the passing game in
general; Eli Manning is what I thought he’d be this preseason (middling). But even if Eli & company turn things
around, the competition isn’t going away.
Add to that ODB’s comment yesterday that he’s “not having fun anymore,”
and you have what I think is a cut-bait situation. I suggest trying to trade this formerly elite
WR for a top 8 RB or WR; there’s simply a high probability he won’t be elite
the rest of the way.
DeAndre Hopkins also is struggling.
This summer I wrote that he’d regress due to bad QB play and more focus
on the run game. He’s also facing
competition from Will Fuller, which I wasn’t expecting. And now it’s clear defenses are focusing on
stopping Hopkins; it’s a key part of their game plan. If Fuller keeps producing, that will actually
help Hopkins, as it should force defenses to keep Fuller honest, too. I remain down on Hopkins as a top 8 WR, but I’d
happily trade a WR2 or RB2 for him. His
numbers going forward should be somewhere in between near-elite and mid-level
WR2.
For mental mistakes, while Golden Tate didn’t enter the season as an
elite option, he’s arguably been the most disappointing WR2 this season. He’s dropping balls, running bad routes, and
getting benched. The coaching staff
insists he’s still a key part of their offense.
And maybe he’ll turn things around.
I traded for him about 10 days ago as part of a package deal; he was a
throw-in player. And that’s how he
should be viewed. Trade for him if you
have the luxury of waiting for him to turn things around. But don’t expect anything; he could be droppable
in a week or two.
Finally, QB limitations impact many WRs in small-to-medium ways. If a top 5 WR benefits from having a QB who
throws for 40 TDs, and then joins a team the next year with a QB who maxes out
at 28 TDs, in most scenarios that’ll limit that WR’s potential. Allen Robinson struggled earlier this season
in tandem with Blake Bortles’ struggles.
I believed Bortles would turn things around, so I was in buy mode re:
Robinson. A lesser talent, Julian
Edelman, has struggled with Tom Brady suspended. Brady’s return obviously will help get
Edelman back on track (though I don’t think it’ll be enough to satisfy fantasy
owners expecting WR2 production).
There’s one more thing to consider—that there isn’t a clear factor. And that’s the worst kind of dilemma. If you drafted someone like Randall Cobb
early, it’s not always obvious what to do with him. Coming off back-to-back 120+ target campaigns,
Cobb is on pace for 96. His yardage and
TDs (zero) have made him virtually unplayable.
If we can’t assess the “why,” then consider the law of fantasy averages,
where great and very good player often get their points eventually. Offensive game plans shift as defensive plans
change. Barring an unknown injury, I’d
absolutely take a chance on Cobb rebounding.
I just wouldn’t pay a WR2 or RB2 to find out.