Thursday Night Football played out largely as expected: Aaron Rodgers
threw for three scores (I thought he’d get four), Randall Cobb netted 17+
points (he was a must-start WR heading into the game), Don Jackson and Knile
Davis were unstartable, and Jordan Howard went the way of Jeremy Langford—both
overhyped fantasy RBs who some owners were able to trade for legitimate
starters. My big miss was Ty Montgomery,
who surprised me with another high-usage outing.
There’s a rhythm to fantasy football.
When we get in sync with player ups and downs (of course Rodgers and
Cobb would be elite this week; of course Howard’s stock would crash), we find
points many others can’t while limiting the damage caused by underperformers. Identifying rhythms doesn’t always work;
Montgomery was a statistical outlier in my opinion—Green Bay’s fourth best receiver
garnering 10+ catches in two straight games.
But most of the time, rhythms are at least somewhat predictable.
I’ve said it before and will say it again: Game plans change. Defenses adjust. Offenses counter-adjust. And so on.
That, in essence, is the rhythm. Anticipating
which adjustments will occur, and how effective they’ll be, is one of the
greatest tools a fantasy footballer can have.
Looking ahead, as I wrote yesterday, I don’t like anyone in Chicago’s
backfield (although I’m sure they’re all nice people). There’s no good reason to rush out and
acquire Ka’Deem Carey, or for that matter, Jeremy Langford. Save your available bench spot for a higher
upside option.
On the receiving side, I’m actually a bit more bullish about Alshon
Jeffery and, to a lesser extent, Cameron Meredith. You could probably land Jeffery for a WR3 or
RB3, and Meredith could be had for less.
Tell your opponent that you’re going for broke in the hope that QB Matt
Barkley figures things out. In
actuality, whenever Jay Cutler returns, the Bears will once again have some
semblance of an offense. Jeffery’s best
game of the season came with Cutler under center, and he’s coming off an
11-target performance. The pendulum will
swing back in his direction.
Meanwhile, I’d be shocked if the Packers didn’t sign Pierre Thomas or
Steven Jackson or some other largely over-the-hill RB who’s still far better
than Knile Davis and the now-injured Don Jackson. I’m adding any signed RB who’s almost
guaranteed 14+ touches a game; I’m ignoring the current crop.
Stubbornly, I’m not sold on Montgomery.
Yet. The Packers’ upcoming
schedule is very favorable; their fantasy playoff schedules (games against
Seattle and Minnesota) is not. As long
as Montgomery remains the #4 option on offense, I’m not confident he can keep
this up.