The biggest question on this page since Tuesday—in private messages, in
public comments, and in e-mails—has been some combination of “What do you think
of Knile Davis / Don Jackson / Ty Montgomery”?
The Packers play what should be a fairly convincing win against the
Bears tonight. In this week’s Winners
& Whiners podcast I predicted four TDs for Aaron Rodgers and 35+ points for
Green Bay. Basically, if you have
Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and/or Randall Cobb, congratulations: you’ll be up
comfortably heading into Sunday.
But let’s break down these three lesser-tier talents. Could Davis, Jackson, and/or Montgomery be viable
Week 7 starters?
My view is “no,” with one caveat.
Who is Don Jackson? He’s never
played an NFL snap, either in the regular season or preseason. No reasonable person can predict how this
will translate tonight. But I like him
better than the far more known commodity, Knile Davis.
Davis posted very respectable fantasy numbers as Jamaal Charles’ backup
in 2013 and 2014. His production fooled
me badly heading into the 2015 season, causing me to prop up Davis as a
high-upside RB handcuff. But his
back-to-back 3.5 YPC seasons weren’t flukes.
Last year he earned seven touches in Week 1 and never matched or exceeded
that total the rest of the season, as Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West
leapfrogged the former handcuff to render him irrelevant. Based solely on probabilities, I’m not buying
Davis as anything more than a TD-dependent RB with the potential for very limited
touches.
Finally, Ty Montgomery is the prototypical “he did well last week, so
let’s see if he does it again” pickup.
He caught an astonishing 10 balls and ran it three times on Sunday. If Davante Adams sits tonight, sure,
Montgomery becomes a decent WR4. But he’s
not a long-term fantasy option. He might
run it some more. He might get 6-8
targets. And if he plays decently, sell
high. Montgomery will be irrelevant with
a healthy Adams, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson gobbling up most of the targets.
I had the chance to add any of these three Packers with my #3 waiver
position yesterday, but decided to pass.
All three were snatched up, while I added Chester Rogers—a likely starter
if Phillip Dorsett is sidelined. The allure
of someone like Montgomery coming off a 100-yard performance is sometimes tough
to ignore. But if we ignore the
distraction of statistical outliers, under-the-radar bargains are usually easy to
find.