In my latest WRAL SportsFan column I talk about RB workloads. What is the sweet spot—enough carries to help
ensure someone’s RB1 value, but not enough to increase injury risk due to
overutilization?
My test case if Lamar Miller—a preseason top 3 RB whose best games this
season are ahead of him. But there’s
risk: Miller has been a lightly used workhorse throughout his career. Now he’s on pact for 395 carries (more than
DeMarco Murray had a couple of years ago) and 448 touches. Among the six other RBs who’ve had more
carries in a season—plus Murray, who’s next on the list—five broke down the
following year. The other two were never
the same starting the season after that.
So if you’re in a dynasty league, this is a yellow flag. Miller should be a top 7 RB the rest of the
way. Yet at this rate, I’m not touching
his potential RB1 value in 2017. So he’s
on my sell-high radar.
In re-draft leagues, he’s worth monitoring. If Houston reduces his touches, I’m
happy. Miller was a low-end RB1 getting
only 18-22 touches a game for the Dolphins.
At his current 28-per-game clip, I’d feel more comfortable seeing a dip
into the 20-24 range. While it might
mean 20-40 fewer yards per contest, he’ll be more likely to remain healthy for
the fantasy playoffs.
Around the league, Sammy Watkins was placed on Injured Reserve, making
Robert Woods a worthwhile WR3 flier.
Marquise Goodwin also gets a bump into dart-throw territory. Charles Clay would be a TE1 if not for his
chronic back injury, which raises too many questions about his game-to-game
potential. Tyrod Taylor’s value clearly
drops, while LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee are mostly unchanged (possibly
more touches, but potentially fewer scoring opportunities in an offense that’ll
have more trouble moving the chains).
And Eric Decker’s recent shoulder injury has forced fantasy managers to
scramble. Brandon Marshall was one of my
favorite buy-low WRs, and now he’s at the top of my list. Of course, Quincy Enunwa goes from sell high
to buy low, as he’ll likely be a major part of this offense for weeks to come.
Also, if you’re still holding onto Rashad Jennings or Jonathan Stewart,
why? Both guys were overvalued heading
into the season, and now they’re on the verge of irrelevancy. Stewart is the more likely of the two to
regain his starting role, but even then I believe he’ll be relegated to a
time-share.