Whether you’ve been reading this site for weeks, months, or years, you
know that I’d rather miss big than play it safe. In my experience, championships are won
through boldness, not nibbling around conventional wisdom. In the past 24 hours there’s been news that’s
been surprising to many, but which readers of this page could have anticipated
for weeks or months.
Jordan Howard—a seemingly invincible fantasy commodity this month—played
far fewer snaps last week than in the two weeks prior. What was the difference? Ka’Deem Carey’s return from an injury. Carey actually outperformed Howard
Sunday. The same bullish attitude people
had toward Jeremy Langford at the start of the season now can be applied to
Howard—and with potentially similar results.
The Bears will go with the hot hand, which means to stay on the field,
Howard must continue to dominate, or at least play very, very well. If you have Howard, I strongly urge you to
sell high. While he might continue to
lead this backfield, a drop to 12-14 touches a game would make him almost unstartable
in 12-team leagues.
This summer I pushed Colin Kaepernick as the 49ers’ best hope at
QB. It was an odd shift in thinking,
because for over two years I’ve publicly viewed him as a vastly overvalued
talent. But Blaine Gabbert wasn’t and
isn’t the answer. Last week I
double-downed on this thinking by pushing Torrey Smith—an irrelevant commodity
in Gabbert’s offense, but a promising big-play receiver behind the arm of
Kaepernick. With Big Ben hurt and Dak
Prescott on bye, I picked up Kap this morning and will start him with
confidence (18+ fantasy points) against a beatable Bucs D. At 1-5 and owning the league’s worst passing
offense, Kap and Smith are once again terrific flyers.
I took a lot of flack a few weeks ago for urging readers to sell high
on Matt Forte. His upcoming schedule
mattered. His middling YPC mattered. His excessive carries mattered:
This past weekend Bilal Powell nearly doubled Forte’s snap count. Sure, the former fantasy stud could muster a
few more decent games this season. But if
you cashed out after Week 2, you scored one of the biggest coups of this
fantasy season: unloading a past-his-prime RB for, in all likelihood, an elite
RB or WR.
Finally, Denver head coach Gary Kubiak said yesterday that he wants to
get Devontae Booker more involved. For
weeks I’ve been pushing this guy.
Barring an injury, C.J. isn’t going anywhere. But Booker’s stock is rising, and for good
reason. At minimum, this is becoming
what it seemed it would be weeks ago: a two-headed backfield. Plan accordingly.
You’ll know when I miss big, and I miss big fairly often. But by playing the probabilities on bold
moves—like selling high on Forte and Howard when they’re playing beyond
reasonable expectations—you’ll come out ahead.