Week 4 Thursday Night Football Recap and Free Agent Targets

Per yesterday’s column, Thursday Night Football went as expected: the Bengals controlled the clock (38:02 time of possession), wore down Miami with the run game (37 carries compared to 13 for Miami), were inefficient in the red zone (1-for-3), and let their kicker do the heavy lifting (five Mike Nugent field goals).

Miami’s running game deserves a little more scrutiny.  Outside of a 50-yard reception in Week 1, Arian Foster simply didn’t produce before getting hurt.  And aside from a competent (though unspectacular) Week 3 performance versus the Browns, this group has looked downright ineffective.  But let’s not ignore them quite yet.  All three bad outings came on the road against pretty good run defenses.  Their next three matchups are at home against the Titans (very winnable), Steelers (tough run D), and Bills (very winnable). 

I’m not suggesting picking up any Miami RB; it’s a muddled mess with Foster sidelined.  I am suggesting that the offense will open up in October.  If Foster gets healthy and returns to the starting lineup, he’ll be startable from a fantasy perspective in weeks 4 and 6.

The Bengals’ backfield has faced similar adversity, leading off the season with two road games against two of the five toughest run Ds.  Three of their next four contests are against Dallas, Cleveland, and Washington.  As challenging as it is to start Jeremy Hill on a weekly basis, he’s clearly the lead back and should find a lot more success in October.

Now let’s look at some potential free agents heading into the weekend:

- Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman – Josh Gordon has entered rehab.  I’ve never been a long-term fantasy fan of Pryor, but this obviously opens the door for the versatile receiver / part-time QB to be an every-week fantasy commodity—provided Cody Kessler can get him the ball.  Pryor is available in over 20% of ESPN leagues.  Meanwhile, Coleman’s broken hand has sent his stock plummeting; he’s now available in more than half of ESPN leagues.  Stash him without hesitation, or try to buy low if your opponent is desperate to free up bench space.

- Hunter Henry – I hyped up the rookie last week when Antonio Gates was ruled out.  Don’t worry about Gates returning; Henry should still be involved in the offense regardless.  He’s a near automatic TE1 while Gates is sidelined and is owned in barely 25% of ESPN leagues.

- Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams – Stupidly, I dropped Beasley Sunday morning because I didn’t want to be saddled with a WR4.  With Dez Bryant’s health now in doubt, Beasley has WR2 potential this week and is a must-start if/when Dez is out.  He’s owned in only 35% of ESPN leagues, and apparently at least one Yahoo league (one of my opponents grabbed him off waivers Wednesday morning).  My preseason bold prediction, Terrance Williams (9% owned), finally came alive last weekend.  He’s a terrific flier this week if Dez sits and is a worthwhile hold if Dez’s prognosis worsens.

- Dwayne Washington – He’s available in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues, which is crazy considering Ameer Abdullah might not return this season.  Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner will never be bellcows.  Washington has a chance to carve out 14-18 touches a game in a very good offense.  He should be rostered in nearly every league.

- Josh Lambo – This is kind of a joke, but not really. I pushed Lambo (K-27 ADP) hard this preseason—the only kicker I promoted all summer. Currently 10th in fantasy scoring, Lambo somehow is owned in less than 20% of ESPN leagues. C’mon, people. High-powered offense (third in the league in scoring), mostly good-weather games, and a strong leg (80% from 50+ last season). If you’re not happy with your kicker, Lambo will be a K1 all season long.