Week 1 Sunday Recap and Forward-Looking Roster Strategies

Sunday, Week 1: It would take tens of thousands of words to dissect every fantasy-relevant element of yesterday’s 13 games.  So let’s go with some bite-sized fantasy nuggets to get you through the day/week/season:

-- Originally I suggested trading Larry Fitzgerald in dynasty leagues. Immediately. NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport stated yesterday that Fitzgerald’s been telling close associates that he plans to retire after this season: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/774978747984338946. But today ESPN's Adam Schefter denied such reports: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/775320267430236160. Regardless, coming off a 2-TD performance, Fitzgerald is someone at least one of your opponents will pay good value for. Package him in a 2-for-2 for Amari Cooper or Mark Ingram or Jarvis Landry. John Brown won’t be irrelevant most weeks, and Michael Floyd will be a key contributor most weeks.

-- Jay Ajayi was told not to join Miami on its trip to Seattle Sunday, and the latest reports suggest he might not play next week, either.  He’s still the best Miami handcuff, but he isn’t worth rostering in most leagues.  That said, if you play in a very deep league where the best RB available is Cameron Artis-Payne, I’d stash Ajayi based on the decent probability that Foster will miss time this season.

-- I was all in on Spencer Ware this week after urging folks to draft him in the weeks/months beforehand.  And he came through.  Not it’s time to reassess.  Charcandrick West earned nine touches Sunday.  Granted, he didn’t do much with them, but he should still have a role going forward.  And Jamaal Charles will—I repeat, will—be involved in this offense once he reaches 100%.  That could come in a week or a few weeks.  But it’s very likely to happen.  And when it does, Ware might not be startable in a lot of leagues.  So if you can cash out for an RB2 or WR2, it’s the right kind of bold move.

-- Before lunging to pick up a top Week 1 performer or pursuing a trade, assess a player’s targets/touches.  Lamar Miller got the ball 32 times, yet racked up only 11 standard-scoring points.  Latavius Murray and Isaiah Crowell scored more points with fewer than half Miller’s touches.  I want my RBs getting 20+ a game when possible.  Oakland could be headed toward a crowded backfield, limiting Murray’s weekly production capacity.  The Browns’ offense could struggle more often than not, hampering Crowell’s TD potential.  While they scored double-digit points this week, if they continue to earn only 12-16 touches per game, they’ll likely drop in value.  Of course, the same goes for solid-scoring receivers like Chris Hogan (four targets), Victor Cruz (four targets), and Seth Roberts (four targets).  High-target underperformers like Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, and Travis Benjamin will rebound sooner than later.

-- Speaking of Benjamin, Keenan Allen’s devastating (is there any other kind?) injury makes the former Brown one of my top trade targets of the week.  He should exceed his ADP value going forward as San Diego’s new #1 receiver, while Tyrell Williams is a very worthwhile pickup as the team’s potential #2 (competing with Dontrelle Inman).  Meanwhile, FF4W underrated preseason RB Melvin Gordon gets a boost as the Chargers’ (arguably) now-best offensive weapon, and FF4W overrated preseason RB Danny Woodhead gets a bump because he’ll be needed a bit more in the passing game.