Let’s spend a few moments talking about my biggest miss from last
night.
I was adamant yesterday that Matt Forte was a sell-high RB. The nearly 31-year-old is coming off back-to-back
seasons with YPCs below his career average (though some of that could be
attributed to Chicago’s weak o-line). Entering
the season, most fantasy prognosticators expected him to share the workload
with Bilal Powell—a runner and pass-catcher with a decent track record in New
York.
So yesterday, facing a decent run defense on the road—a defense that on
the road Week 1 had kept Baltimore in check—I urged readers to sit Forte in
favor of other RB1s and RB2s, and more than that, to trade the overvalued
veteran before his stock dropped.
There are two ways to look at what Forte did last night. One way is to see 28 fantasy points (standard
scoring) and think, “Wow, Forte’s finally back to his old self: a reliable RB1 I
stole in the 3rd/4th/5th round.”
This site does two things pretty consistently: own up to what I got
wrong, and challenge conventional wisdom when such wisdom seems most obvious. In other words, when everyone is coming to
Conclusion A, I’m researching the facts to confirm whether Conclusion A makes
sense. If it doesn’t, I’ll share why it
doesn’t.
Hats off to those who brilliantly drafted Forte. The question now is, what are you going to do
about it? And this is the other way of
looking at what he did last night: Forte has a 3.78 YPC in two games, continuing
the dip we first saw in 2014. He’s on
pace for 416 carries this season, which would tie Larry Johnson’s record from 10
years ago. His career average heading
into 2016 was just under 17 carries per game; he’s now averaging 26. The Jets’ schedule beginning next weekend
includes @Chiefs (Week 3), Seahawks (Week 4), @Steelers (Week 5), @Cardinals
(Week 6). The schedule beyond that could
go either way, depending on whether Miami’s D steps up (as I’ve been predicting
they will).
This is a handful among many warning signs that Forte’s value is about
to drop. Revel in his success. Many of you are on your way to a 2-0 start. Now set yourself up for 6-0: trade Forte to
an RB-needy opponent (or a Jets fan) for a low-end RB1/WR1 or, if no one’s
biting, a high-end RB2/WR2. Be ahead of
the curve and embrace trading great players when they’re not likely to continue
playing “great.”