In yesterday’s WRAL SportsFan column, I write about “contradictory
intelligence.” It’s another way of
saying “unconventional wisdom,” which is what this page tries to be all about, to
varying degrees of success and failure.
I’m no sociologist or anthropologist, but I believe people love
patterns. We seek to make sense out of complex
things, breaking them down into their simplest, most understandable, most
relatable forms.
It’s why I constantly read and hear people say things like, “Start running
back ABC this week against the Vikings, because in eight of his past 10 games
vs. Minnesota he’s averaged 84 yards and a touchdown.” Rather than go to the trouble—and really, who
has the time?—to assess every aspect of this RB’s past success vs. the Vikings,
and to grasp the present potential of the RB in light of ever-evolving team
conditions, and to explore Minnesota’s defensive potential in light of ever-evolving
team conditions, and so on . . . Rather than do all these things, it’s so much
easier to look up two columns of numbers, add them up, and make a pronouncement
that proves these prognosticators aren’t simply random projections. There’s a *reason* running back ABC should be
started in fantasy leagues, and it’s *because* of these two numbers.
Making the complex simple. Making
the hard work look easy. Making
predictions that aren’t worth what people think they’re worth. This leads to so many roster management
mistakes every season, and it’s why putting in the extra work to jump from
50-55% accuracy to 60-65% accuracy is so worth it. While perfection is not possible, “better”
is. And “better” often means looking at
more than a couple of outdated variables.
Aaron Schoonmaker and I talk more about this topic and share a bunch of
fantasy player insights on this week’s 30-minute Winners & Whiners podcast. About 1,500 people are listening to it every
week, and we appreciate the support:
Finally, I’m trying to wrest Paul Perkins from my league opponent. I’ve never believed Rashad Jennings, Shane
Vereen, or Orleans Darkwa would be weekly fantasy options this season. That leaves the rookie Perkins. Giant RBs are 28th in the NFL with
a 3.2 YPC despite being 11th in rushing attempts. Their combined 2014-2015 YPC was 3.8. This team won’t reach the Super Bowl without
a competent running game. So my belief
is that eventually they’ll give Perkins a shot.
If you have bench space for a speculative RB handcuff add, grab
him. If you’re in a deep league like me
and someone else grabbed him, trade for him on the cheap. He’s more under the radar than Jerick
McKinnon, Mike Gillislee, and even Kenneth Dixon. But if you can afford a flier and these three
RBs are gone, I’d pick him up and see where things stand midseason.