It’s Tuesday, so that means this column is all about trading. Who should we buy low? Who should we sell high? Let’s look at a few QBs and WRs:
Why did I predict Ryan Tannehill (QB-22 ADP) will be a top 12 QB this
season? Aside from the fact he posted low-end
QB1 numbers in 2013 and 2014? Aside from
the fact that he’s throwing to two potential top 25 WRs and a ridiculously undervalued
Kenny Stills (WR-94 ADP)? Aside from the
fact that he’s now being coached by Adam Gase, who last year helped Jay Cutler
achieve the best QB rating of his career, and who two seasons before that
helped Peyton Manning engineer two of the Hall-of-Famer’s three greatest
seasons? Tannehill is on pace for 4,600
yards despite opening the season with the NFL’s toughest schedule. If you’re in a deep league or 2-QB league,
engineer a 2-for-2 where the Dolphins QB is a throw-in. At worst, he’ll be a mid-level QB1 streamer
every other week. At best, he’ll be a
top 8 QB the rest of the way.
I’d love to trade for Blake Bortles, last year’s fourth highest scoring
fantasy QB. Jacksonville’s running game
has been anemic (30th in league rushing yards); that will correct
itself when Yeldon gets going and Chris Ivory returns. And Allen Robinson is always one quarter away
from busting out. The fact is, the
Jaguars possess one of the best offenses in the league, and almost no one knows
it, including opponents trying to unload Bortles. Robinson, Allen Hurns, a (finally) healthy
Marqise Lee, and a (for now) healthy Julius Thomas form the basis for a passing
attack that will return Bortles to the top 8 QB conversation.
With Adrian Peterson struggling through most of the season’s first two
games, Stefon Diggs has almost literally become the Vikings’ offense,
accounting for nearly 49% of their total offensive yards. By comparison, AP accounted for about 29% of
Minnesota’s offensive yards last season.
Think about that, and then wonder why anyone would believe Diggs’
dominance will continue. Sell high and
don’t look back.
There’s concern about Andy Dalton’s health. One reader already told me about a trade
offer he received for A.J. Green that seemed too good to be true; it’s likely
because the opponent is worried about Green’s numbers if Dalton misses
time. This is a fantastic buying
opportunity, as Green offers first-round value at a potentially reduced
price. Even if Dalton’s backup, A.J.
McCarron, takes over for a few games—or even all season—in four McCarron starts
last year, Green averaged almost 10 standard points per game . . . less than
two points below his per-game production with Andy Dalton at QB. In other words, I’ll happily part with an RB2
if I can get decent value for Green in the short term and then his normal
dominance for the stretch run.
Randall Cobb is on pace for 888 yards and zero scores. But with Eddie Lacy scuffling and Davante
Adams a distant third on the WR depth chart, Cobb is a fantastic acquisition
target. No one’s talking about him
because he’s off to a slow start, and because last year’s injury-riddled
campaign was forgettable. Use that to
your advantage.
Finally, a few days ago I made my first trade of the season, unloading
two guys I’d tagged as overvalued (T.Y. Hilton and Jeremy Langford) for two
guys I believe are undervalued (Jarvis Landry and Jeremy Hill). At the time, I put my odds of “winning” this
trade at about 52-55%, in the belief that Langford would lose his bellcow
status, while Indianapolis’s short-throw strategy (to limit how much Andrew Luck
gets hit) would hamper Hilton’s ability to stretch the field. Sure enough, Langford did nothing last night
to inspire confidence in Chicago’s coaching staff, while Hilton earned only 41
yards as one of eight players Luck threw to.
If I’d waited until today to try dealing those two, I couldn’t have
gotten Landry and Hill. Trading a
player at his peak in exchange for a player at his floor is something I think
about every day. Make it part of your
daily routine, too.