Every Tuesday from August to November we’re talking fantasy trade
strategies. I devoted an entire chapter in
my book to the art making unfair trades seem fair—of ever-so-slightly-but-tangibly
increasing title hopes one swap at a time.
In the last 40 hours I’ve made two more trades in my league comprised
of fantasy football writers. When considering
making offers, I’m targeting opponents who are coming off losses—preferably bad
losses. I’m pouncing on underperformers,
short-term injured player, and players who’ve endured tough schedules.
The first trade was Sunday evening, when I targeted an opponent who needed
Jason Witten to score 90 points. So
clearly this guy was having a bad day.
My offer wasn’t insulting. It
wasn’t pouring salt on emotional wounds.
It wasn’t demeaning his intelligence.
I was aiming for a 55-45 edge—a roughly 55% chance that, if the trade
went through, I’d come out ahead.
I offered him Derek Carr and Tajae Sharpe for Dak Prescott and Phillip
Dorsett. Carr was my overperforming backup
QB, while Sharpe was now expendable in Tennessee’s run-heavy (and
pass-deficient) offense. In return,
Prescott would be only a short-term backup, but with a few other QB2s on
waivers, I didn’t feel pressure to carry a second QB all season. Meanwhile, with Donte Moncrief out several
weeks, I viewed Dorsett as a higher upside short-term WR than Sharpe, and with
the potential to yield more value later this season in a more pass-friendly
offense.
I’d been shopping Carr for a couple of weeks. No one was interested in giving up much for a
#2 QB—even someone who started the season as strong as Carr. My trading partner had Carson Palmer, whose
seven-point performance Sunday must have made Carr seem a bit more valuable.
So again, this wasn’t a knockout blow.
Everyone in this league is incredibly savvy and knowledgeable. There are no “steals.” But the likely WR upgrade will help more than
the likely QB downgrade will hurt.
Yesterday morning I targeted another opponent who seemed destined to
lose, down nearly 20 points with only a timeshare RB remaining. I offered him my overperforming Jacob Tamme
for his underperforming Golden Tate. His
response: “Thanks for the offer B.J. I'm ok with riding [Eric] Ebron's
potential at TE. Here's a counter...”
A few weeks ago I discussed my approach to connecting
with each opponent before Week 1. I don’t
know any of these people. So a little
courtesy in early September has fostered some open dialogue with a few people
that probably wouldn’t have happened if I’d simply blasted trade offers left
and right. This opponent clearly wanted
to continue that initial conversation.
He countered with Amari Cooper for Kelvin Benjamin and
Golden Tate. Cooper was my second-round
pick (25th overall). Benjamin
was one of the steals of the draft—a fifth rounder. So I responded that I wasn’t ready to give up
my second-rounder—a guy I viewed as a top 10 WR—unless I got a little more in
return.
The key here is “a little.” I was intrigued by his counter and didn’t
want to scare him away. The subtext was,
“We’re close; let’s see if we can finalize this.” So I countered with Amari Cooper,
Eddie Royal, and Paul Perkins for Kelvin Benjamin, Golden Tate, and Derrick
Henry. Sure, I could unload Cooper. But I wanted him to throw in a high-upside RB
handcuff whose usage is increasing.
A short time later, he countered again: Amari Cooper and Kenneth Dixon
for Kelvin Benjamin, Golden Tate, and Derrick Henry. I wrote back what I honestly felt: “I was
afraid you'd ask for Dixon. Not
rejecting it yet. I like Dixon as an
RB2/3 by midseason, because that backfield is atrocious as is. If you accept this counter, done. If not, gimme an hour to mull over yours some
more.” My counter was Amari Cooper, Kenneth Dixon, Nelson Agholor, and Eddie Royal for Kelvin
Benjamin, Golden Tate, Derrick Henry, and Josh Doctson.
A few hours later, he rejected my counter. It was clear that another counter wouldn’t
fly. We’d reached the end of the conversation—except
I’d left the door open for accepting his final offer. I spent an hour pouring through stats,
strength of schedule, game plans (like whether Golden Tate’s line-of-scrimmage
usage and dropped passes might be a season-long problem), and so on. I also solicited advice from three thoughtful
fantasy people I trust.
Shortly after I clicked “Accept,” Tevin Coleman scored his third TD on Monday
Night Football, handing my opponent an unlikely come-from-behind win, avoiding
a 1-2 start to the season. Had I waited
until today to make an offer, my opponent might have been in a very different
(i.e. 2-1) state of mind. The deal might
not have happened.
Fantasy trading is about timing, capitalizing on emotion, respecting
opponents, and narrow advantages.
Hopefully these two examples offer a window into a viable approach to
improving one’s roster one or more players at a time.