When it comes to fantasy football, I have four favorite days of the
year: the first day I return to this blog after a long offseason, fantasy draft
day(s), Sunday of Week 1, and Sunday of Week 16 (if I’m in the title game).
There’s a duality to Sunday of Week 1.
(Had to look up “duality” to make sure I was using it right.) It offers real-world evidence of whether our make-believe
roster of real players is as good (or bad) as we thought it’d be on draft day. Conversely, it also has little bearing on our
team’s potential.
Most of my championship teams have born minimal resemblance to the
rosters I drafted months earlier. Trades
and waiver / free agent pickups—dozens and dozens and dozens of pickups over
the course of a season—have turned mediocre drafts into powerhouse lineups. I realize that’s not true for everyone. But the takeaway is that if your team rocks today,
yeah, it feels good. And it should. But it doesn’t mean we have a great team; it
simply means we had a great Week 1 team.
It’s a deceptively long season.
Continued success isn’t guaranteed in competitive leagues and is
incredibly difficult to sustain. There’s
a lot of ebb and flow to player production.
So if most of your players do well today, understand why. Then determine the extent to which their
success is sustainable. If someone overachieved
and an opponent overvalues him, trade him.
Don’t overthink it. Cash out and
improve your long-term prospects.
If most of your players do poorly today, understand why. Then determine the extent to which their letdown
is a sign of things to come. If someone
underachieved and an opponent undervalues him, keep him. Don’t overthink it. Trust in your belief that this player will
rebound.
Good luck to everyone, and let’s meet back here tomorrow to start figuring
out what to make of the first 5% of the fantasy season.