Once a year I like to share my thinking on draft day so people can understand my thought process throughout—and in some cases, challenge me for not making the right call at the right time (all fair).
Last night I participated in my one and only draft of 2016—a 14-team standard-scoring league operated through Yahoo’s fantasy site, run by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and commissioned by Sports Illustrated’s lead fantasy writer, Michael Beller. The positional breakdown:
QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, K, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR
A few hours beforehand, I read through the league’s rules. Interestingly, passing TDs are only worth four points (all others—including special-team return TDs—are worth six). Because there’s no DST slot, guys like Jarvis Landry and Tyler Lockett get a bump, while QBs take a hit. For example, Cam Newton would have lost over 15% of his point total last year if his passing TDs had been worth four points instead of six. Meanwhile, INTs and lost fumbles are worth minus-1 point instead of minus-2.
I had the fourth pick in the first round. Here were my initial thoughts:
(1) I’m taking Todd Gurley or a top three WR off the bat.
(2) I want Tyler Eifert, Josh Gordon, or Dion Lewis to fill that IR spot.
(3) No DST means more flexibility to add handcuff RBs late.
(4) If I can’t get an elite QB early, I won’t force things, and will focus instead on sleepers like Ryan Tannehill late in the draft.
Round 1 – The first three guys took the three best WRs, so I took Gurley.
Round 2 – Amari Cooper: I got one of my top overall targets with the 24th pick. I’m very happy.
Round 3 – T.Y. Hilton: Was torn about taking Latavius Murray or Jeremy Hill, but Hilton was my top guy on the board. So I trusted my board.
Round 4 – Looking beyond my third pick, I’m sensing who might be gone when it comes back to me. Ben Roethlisberger, Jeremy Langford, and Melvin Gordon should be available, so I’m eyeballing them for my next two picks. Sure enough, all three remain, so I take Ben because two-point conversions are worth half of a passing TD, and Ben’s gonna go for a lot of conversions.
Round 5 – Langford is the top-rated player remaining—both on my draft board and Yahoo’s—when my turn comes up. I grab him without hesitation. I like the flow of this draft. Targets are falling to me.
Round 6 – Looking ahead—21 and 28 picks later—I’m looking at Kelvin Benjamin and not much else. Then Benjamin is taken. So I keep looking. I have a lot of solid options when my turn comes, but no one jumps out. With Zach Ertz the next best TE on the board, I pounce on him. Now I can focus exclusively on RBs and WRs until the final pick.
Round 7 – I want Vincent Jackson because of his strong top 35 potential, but WR3/4s are a dime a dozen. I go with Ameer Abdullah in the hope that he takes another step forward en route to 200+ touches. While I might regret this, I like Abdullah and need another starting RB—even someone with Abdullah’s downside.
Week 8 – Looking ahead, I might have a chance at Devin Funchess, and beyond that, Spencer Ware or Bilal Powell should be within reach. VJax goes off the board 10 picks later. Somehow, Funchess survives the gauntlet. I draft him with relief.
Round 9 – Ware goes off the board during the short turn from the 8th to the 9th rounds. Tajae Sharpe remains. I contemplate taking Philip Dorsett, but prefer to take a team’s #1 WR this late in the draft. Sharpe should be a WR4/5 and could flirt with WR3 numbers if things break his way.
Round 10 – I have three RBs and four WRs, so I want to focus on an RB target if possible—not to force it, but to see if it makes sense when the time comes. Bilal Powell, Christine Michael, Devontae Booker, and Jerick McKinnon are my upcoming targets as I wait patiently through 20 picks. Someone takes C. Michael a few picks later, and then Bilal Powell goes. At my turn, I surprise myself and take Derek Carr. Ryan Tannehill—ranked higher on my board—was also available. But Miami and Pittsburgh share the same bye week. Carr is too good to pass up with a triple-digit pick. I’m no longer wondering, “What will happen if Big Ben gets hurt?”
Round 11 – My strategy backfires. Booker and McKinnon are taken with two of the next three picks. Instead I go with Dion Lewis, who I plan to place on IR until later this season. If James White falters and Lewis makes a full recovery, it’s a fantastic, forward-looking pick. Otherwise, it’s a wasted 11th rounder. Worth the risk.
Round 12 – I’m now eyeing the next tier of RBs . . . and the tier after that. I want two in a row and have five names lined up. Played it safe by nabbing Gurley’s backup, Benny Cunningham. I can sleep a little easier now.
Round 13 – Rob Kelley comes next. It was between him and Cameron Artis-Payne. I like what Kelley’s done this preseason, and with Matt Jones unreliable as a lead back, Kelley is a worthwhile Hail Mary with the 172nd selection.
Round 14 – I forgot about Kenjon Barner. Stupid. Somebody takes him three picks after Kelley, so that’s one I’d like to have back. In hindsight, both guys could step up. But I preferred Barner. Regardless, I have two picks left, and one has to be a kicker. I scan the remaining flex guys and see Brandon LaFell and Charles Johnson are still available. Unfazed by Teddy Bridgewater’s injury, I go with a receiver who’s looked good in camp and could return to his 2014 form. He’ll also be a useful WR4/5 bye week replacement if needed, and if he gets hot early I’ll enjoy trading him.
Round 15 – There’s no bonus for long kicks in this league, so I’m looking for volume with my final pick. Even though he’s ranked among the bottom third at his position, I’m thrilled to close out with Josh Lambo.
So my team is:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Todd Gurley
RB Jeremy Langford
WR Amari Cooper
WR T.Y. Hilton
TE Zach Ertz
Flex Ameer Abdullah
Flex Devin Funchess
K Josh Lambo
Bench Derek Carr
Bench Benny Cunningham
Bench Rob Kelley
Bench Charles Johnson
Bench (open – made a waiver claim for Kenneth Dixon)
IR Dion Lewis
My bench is weak, but that’s fairly normal in a 14-team league. There are no backup TEs on this list. No team’s #3 WR. Beyond Lewis, everyone on this roster is either a key component to their team’s offense, or is one injury away from assuming a substantial role. As with every draft I’ve ever done, I have regrets. But I’ll start the season with strength at every position and some insurance policies on the bench. I can live with that.
Last night I participated in my one and only draft of 2016—a 14-team standard-scoring league operated through Yahoo’s fantasy site, run by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and commissioned by Sports Illustrated’s lead fantasy writer, Michael Beller. The positional breakdown:
QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, K, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR
A few hours beforehand, I read through the league’s rules. Interestingly, passing TDs are only worth four points (all others—including special-team return TDs—are worth six). Because there’s no DST slot, guys like Jarvis Landry and Tyler Lockett get a bump, while QBs take a hit. For example, Cam Newton would have lost over 15% of his point total last year if his passing TDs had been worth four points instead of six. Meanwhile, INTs and lost fumbles are worth minus-1 point instead of minus-2.
I had the fourth pick in the first round. Here were my initial thoughts:
(1) I’m taking Todd Gurley or a top three WR off the bat.
(2) I want Tyler Eifert, Josh Gordon, or Dion Lewis to fill that IR spot.
(3) No DST means more flexibility to add handcuff RBs late.
(4) If I can’t get an elite QB early, I won’t force things, and will focus instead on sleepers like Ryan Tannehill late in the draft.
Round 1 – The first three guys took the three best WRs, so I took Gurley.
Round 2 – Amari Cooper: I got one of my top overall targets with the 24th pick. I’m very happy.
Round 3 – T.Y. Hilton: Was torn about taking Latavius Murray or Jeremy Hill, but Hilton was my top guy on the board. So I trusted my board.
Round 4 – Looking beyond my third pick, I’m sensing who might be gone when it comes back to me. Ben Roethlisberger, Jeremy Langford, and Melvin Gordon should be available, so I’m eyeballing them for my next two picks. Sure enough, all three remain, so I take Ben because two-point conversions are worth half of a passing TD, and Ben’s gonna go for a lot of conversions.
Round 5 – Langford is the top-rated player remaining—both on my draft board and Yahoo’s—when my turn comes up. I grab him without hesitation. I like the flow of this draft. Targets are falling to me.
Round 6 – Looking ahead—21 and 28 picks later—I’m looking at Kelvin Benjamin and not much else. Then Benjamin is taken. So I keep looking. I have a lot of solid options when my turn comes, but no one jumps out. With Zach Ertz the next best TE on the board, I pounce on him. Now I can focus exclusively on RBs and WRs until the final pick.
Round 7 – I want Vincent Jackson because of his strong top 35 potential, but WR3/4s are a dime a dozen. I go with Ameer Abdullah in the hope that he takes another step forward en route to 200+ touches. While I might regret this, I like Abdullah and need another starting RB—even someone with Abdullah’s downside.
Week 8 – Looking ahead, I might have a chance at Devin Funchess, and beyond that, Spencer Ware or Bilal Powell should be within reach. VJax goes off the board 10 picks later. Somehow, Funchess survives the gauntlet. I draft him with relief.
Round 9 – Ware goes off the board during the short turn from the 8th to the 9th rounds. Tajae Sharpe remains. I contemplate taking Philip Dorsett, but prefer to take a team’s #1 WR this late in the draft. Sharpe should be a WR4/5 and could flirt with WR3 numbers if things break his way.
Round 10 – I have three RBs and four WRs, so I want to focus on an RB target if possible—not to force it, but to see if it makes sense when the time comes. Bilal Powell, Christine Michael, Devontae Booker, and Jerick McKinnon are my upcoming targets as I wait patiently through 20 picks. Someone takes C. Michael a few picks later, and then Bilal Powell goes. At my turn, I surprise myself and take Derek Carr. Ryan Tannehill—ranked higher on my board—was also available. But Miami and Pittsburgh share the same bye week. Carr is too good to pass up with a triple-digit pick. I’m no longer wondering, “What will happen if Big Ben gets hurt?”
Round 11 – My strategy backfires. Booker and McKinnon are taken with two of the next three picks. Instead I go with Dion Lewis, who I plan to place on IR until later this season. If James White falters and Lewis makes a full recovery, it’s a fantastic, forward-looking pick. Otherwise, it’s a wasted 11th rounder. Worth the risk.
Round 12 – I’m now eyeing the next tier of RBs . . . and the tier after that. I want two in a row and have five names lined up. Played it safe by nabbing Gurley’s backup, Benny Cunningham. I can sleep a little easier now.
Round 13 – Rob Kelley comes next. It was between him and Cameron Artis-Payne. I like what Kelley’s done this preseason, and with Matt Jones unreliable as a lead back, Kelley is a worthwhile Hail Mary with the 172nd selection.
Round 14 – I forgot about Kenjon Barner. Stupid. Somebody takes him three picks after Kelley, so that’s one I’d like to have back. In hindsight, both guys could step up. But I preferred Barner. Regardless, I have two picks left, and one has to be a kicker. I scan the remaining flex guys and see Brandon LaFell and Charles Johnson are still available. Unfazed by Teddy Bridgewater’s injury, I go with a receiver who’s looked good in camp and could return to his 2014 form. He’ll also be a useful WR4/5 bye week replacement if needed, and if he gets hot early I’ll enjoy trading him.
Round 15 – There’s no bonus for long kicks in this league, so I’m looking for volume with my final pick. Even though he’s ranked among the bottom third at his position, I’m thrilled to close out with Josh Lambo.
So my team is:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Todd Gurley
RB Jeremy Langford
WR Amari Cooper
WR T.Y. Hilton
TE Zach Ertz
Flex Ameer Abdullah
Flex Devin Funchess
K Josh Lambo
Bench Derek Carr
Bench Benny Cunningham
Bench Rob Kelley
Bench Charles Johnson
Bench (open – made a waiver claim for Kenneth Dixon)
IR Dion Lewis
My bench is weak, but that’s fairly normal in a 14-team league. There are no backup TEs on this list. No team’s #3 WR. Beyond Lewis, everyone on this roster is either a key component to their team’s offense, or is one injury away from assuming a substantial role. As with every draft I’ve ever done, I have regrets. But I’ll start the season with strength at every position and some insurance policies on the bench. I can live with that.