Some noteworthy RB news broke yesterday, including:
-- Jay Ajayi didn’t accompany the Dolphins to Seattle, as Miami
allegedly needs RBs who can play special teams.
Ouch. Perhaps there’s more to
this story. Ajayi went from Lamar Miller’s
heir-apparent to entirely redundant in less than two months. It’s a situation to monitor closely, because the
likelihood Foster remains healthy all season has to be less than 50-50. But as of today, Ajayi no longer can be
termed a “complementary back” or even a “handcuff.”
-- Charcandrick West is now ahead of Spencer Ware on the Chiefs’
official depth chart. Go figure. After outperforming West last season and
looking increasingly like K.C.’s lead back while Jamaal Charles recovers from surgery,
West is now “officially” #1. While it remains
unclear which guy will lead the team in carries Week 1, at worst Ware should
net 12 touches. At best, he’s looking at
18+. Given the matchup, I’d continue to
start Ware with confidence as a flex option and with semi-confidence as a DFS
flier. And stay tuned: this story might clear up by tomorrow
morning.
For you daily leaguers, here are some Week 1 bargains and busts Daily
league bargains, some of which were highlighted earlier this week on my weekly
podcast with Aaron Schoonmaker, “Fantasy Football Winners & Whiners”:
QB: Dak Prescott ($5,000 on FanDuel) is a fantastic start
in 2-QB leagues and a decent flier in 1-QB leagues. In DFS, he’s the ideal selection: dirt cheap,
unquestionable starter, home game, weak opposing defense. There are other QBs who will do better, but at
or near his price, there’s no one more promising. On the flip side, I’m avoiding the very
overvalued Andy Dalton ($7,700), who’s priced based on last year’s
per-game numbers and not on what we can expect in 2016.
RB: Charles Sims ($4,700), Spencer Ware ($5,400),
Charcandrick West ($5,100), and Christine Michael ($4,800) are good-to-great
bargains. Ware and West could cancel
each other out if they split touches.
But at those prices, and facing the Chargers at home, each guy should
outperform his supposed value. Michael’s
worth hinges on how much playing time he gets vs. a now-healthy Thomas Rawls,
but I still expect him to get a decent chunk of work. In the bust department, Justin
Forsett ($6,900) remains a player to avoid in DFS and in regular leagues. Arian Foster’s ($6,500) prospects
improve with Ajayi sitting out, but DFS is about finding high-ceiling
guys. Foster on the road against Seattle
screams “RB2/3,” not “high ceiling.”
WR: If Markus Wheaton can’t play, Sammie Coates ($5,200) is a decent
dart throw at that price, though Washington’s improved secondary makes him a
true bust-boom-bust (twice as likely to bust as to break out). Similarly, the unproven Eli Rogers ($4,500)
is a nice filler if you’re loading up on high-priced players elsewhere. Tajae Sharpe ($4,800) and Marvin Jones ($5,500)
are clearly undervalued, with the latter facing a Colts D that he and Matthew
Stafford could shred. On the other hand,
two $7,300 players (Julian Edelman and Allen Hurns) are too risky for me. And even with Rob Gronkowski sitting (according to yesterday's Providence Journal), Edelman’s matchup and QB make him a decent-floor, low-ish-ceiling player—not
what you want at that price. Hurns won’t
be nearly the producer he was last year, so I’m steering clear.
TE: There aren’t any cheap TEs worth targeting as true “bargains”
besides Jesse James ($4,500), who has the TD potential of Heath Miller, but
without the rapport with Big Ben. I’d
spend a little money at the TE spot this week, going with Zach Ertz ($5,700) ,
Julius Thomas ($5,800), or Travis Kelce ($6,400). I said it on the podcast and will say it here:
I’m expecting two TDs from Kelce in Week 1.
And with Gronk out, Martellus Bennett ($5,100) becomes a useful,
cheap starter. But given the choice, I’d
go with Kelce. Again, Kelce. One more time: Kelce.
Skipping kickers, who on a week-to-week basis are largely unpredictable,
at DST I’m all in on the Cowboys ($4,400)—one of my top 5 fantasy Ds in
Week 1—while the Ravens ($4,300) are a decent bargain.