Jamaal Charles and Thomas Rawls Updates, Latest WRAL SportsFan Podcast / Blog Post, and Bold Predictions 48, 49, and 50: Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Dalton, and Matt Jones
Two things before (nearly) wrapping up the Preseason Top 50 Bold Predictions. First, among those who’ve received my weekly (and recent biweekly) updated preseason rankings, there’s been a common challenge to my RB rankings since June: “Why are Jamaal Charles and Thomas Rawls ranked so low?” These past two weeks we’ve seen why. With word yesterday that Christine Michael has (for now) jumped Rawls on the depth chart, it’s clear that those who invested in Spencer Ware and/or Michael are so far primed for more value than those who reached early for Charles and/or Rawls.
Fantasy is fluid. So all this could change today. But it’s an important reminder that universal expert opinions aren’t always the best opinions. We can play these things safe like nearly everyone else, or we can challenge conventional wisdom when something no longer seems wise. Fantasy Football for Winners has been focusing on the latter since day 1, because that’s the biggest key to winning.
Second, my latest 30-minute WRAL SportsFan podcast is up, as well as my biweekly blog post:
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/want-to-win-your-fantasy-football-league-know-the-rules/15991174/
At about the 11:50 mark of the podcast, co-host Aaron Schoonmaker and I spend about 12-13 minutes discussing bargains and busts in the daily fantasy sports scene (FanDuel, DraftKings, etc.). Future episodes will focus on regular and daily leagues.
Busting through bold predictions as we make our way to 50:
(48) Larry Fitzgerald (WR-28 ADP) will not be a top 35 WR. In 2015, Fitzgerald enjoyed a near-career year at age 32 with a career-high 109 receptions. The emergence of David Johnson and the rise of Michael Floyd will relegate the Cards’ longtime franchise player to the team’s third offensive option. Last season was a great story. This season, shockingly to many fantasy managers, he won’t be an every-week starter in 10-team leagues.
(49) Andy Dalton (QB-14 ADP) will not be a top 20 QB. Last preseason I pushed Dalton more than any other QB—the quintessential undervalued fantasy player who could dominate his position. Before getting hurt in Week 14, he was on his way to a top 6 fantasy QB season. But this year, Marvin Jones is gone, and to a lesser extent Mohammed Sanu. Tyler Eifert might miss all of September. Brandon LaFell is not an ideal #2 receiver for any team, and Tyler Boyd is still green. The return of “good” Jeremy Hill will mean less productivity for Gio Bernard—meaning a less productive passing game to Cincy’s backfield. All of this adds up to an underwhelming season for the presumptive deep-league, low-end QB1.
(50) Matt Jones (RB-24 ADP) will not be a top 35 RB. Emotion has no place in fantasy sports. I was very high on Jones last preseason, urging readers to avoid the overrated Alfred Morris and instead take a flier on Jones, who showed a lot of promise and a propensity to fumble. There’s no conceivable way that he puts it all together in 2016. With Rob Kelley looking good this summer as Jones was sidelined with a shoulder injury, the once clear-cut lead back is now at risk of being part of the dreaded “running-back-by-committee.”
Tomorrow I’ll release two edits to the top 50—one for Dion Lewis and the other for Bruce Ellington. Several of my earlier predictions—like Kelvin Benjamin and Golden Tate—don’t look so good anymore. But I made the calls and urged readers to act on those calls, so I can’t backtrack. But an unforeseen setback to Lewis and Ellington’s sudden season-ending injury require two changes to the list. And it isn’t just about players I’ve hyped up; if Larry Fitzgerald sustained a serious injury today and wouldn’t return until November, I’d knock him off this list.
I’ll post the final Top 50 tomorrow and, as I do very year, will revisit it at season’s end to see how it all turned out.
Fantasy is fluid. So all this could change today. But it’s an important reminder that universal expert opinions aren’t always the best opinions. We can play these things safe like nearly everyone else, or we can challenge conventional wisdom when something no longer seems wise. Fantasy Football for Winners has been focusing on the latter since day 1, because that’s the biggest key to winning.
Second, my latest 30-minute WRAL SportsFan podcast is up, as well as my biweekly blog post:
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/want-to-win-your-fantasy-football-league-know-the-rules/15991174/
At about the 11:50 mark of the podcast, co-host Aaron Schoonmaker and I spend about 12-13 minutes discussing bargains and busts in the daily fantasy sports scene (FanDuel, DraftKings, etc.). Future episodes will focus on regular and daily leagues.
Busting through bold predictions as we make our way to 50:
(48) Larry Fitzgerald (WR-28 ADP) will not be a top 35 WR. In 2015, Fitzgerald enjoyed a near-career year at age 32 with a career-high 109 receptions. The emergence of David Johnson and the rise of Michael Floyd will relegate the Cards’ longtime franchise player to the team’s third offensive option. Last season was a great story. This season, shockingly to many fantasy managers, he won’t be an every-week starter in 10-team leagues.
(49) Andy Dalton (QB-14 ADP) will not be a top 20 QB. Last preseason I pushed Dalton more than any other QB—the quintessential undervalued fantasy player who could dominate his position. Before getting hurt in Week 14, he was on his way to a top 6 fantasy QB season. But this year, Marvin Jones is gone, and to a lesser extent Mohammed Sanu. Tyler Eifert might miss all of September. Brandon LaFell is not an ideal #2 receiver for any team, and Tyler Boyd is still green. The return of “good” Jeremy Hill will mean less productivity for Gio Bernard—meaning a less productive passing game to Cincy’s backfield. All of this adds up to an underwhelming season for the presumptive deep-league, low-end QB1.
(50) Matt Jones (RB-24 ADP) will not be a top 35 RB. Emotion has no place in fantasy sports. I was very high on Jones last preseason, urging readers to avoid the overrated Alfred Morris and instead take a flier on Jones, who showed a lot of promise and a propensity to fumble. There’s no conceivable way that he puts it all together in 2016. With Rob Kelley looking good this summer as Jones was sidelined with a shoulder injury, the once clear-cut lead back is now at risk of being part of the dreaded “running-back-by-committee.”
Tomorrow I’ll release two edits to the top 50—one for Dion Lewis and the other for Bruce Ellington. Several of my earlier predictions—like Kelvin Benjamin and Golden Tate—don’t look so good anymore. But I made the calls and urged readers to act on those calls, so I can’t backtrack. But an unforeseen setback to Lewis and Ellington’s sudden season-ending injury require two changes to the list. And it isn’t just about players I’ve hyped up; if Larry Fitzgerald sustained a serious injury today and wouldn’t return until November, I’d knock him off this list.
I’ll post the final Top 50 tomorrow and, as I do very year, will revisit it at season’s end to see how it all turned out.