Yesterday, the morning after my draft, I contacted the other 13 league owners. As many of you know, I’m a big fan of trading. So much so that each year I usually average more trades than the rest of my opponents combined.
The art of trading is understanding which players’ perceived values are higher or lower than their actual value. So if Melvin Gordon’s perceived valued is a top 20-25 RB, but you believe he’s actually a top 14-18 RB, then he becomes an acquisition target; you’ll likely pay less than what he’s worth (to you).
Conversely, if Sammy Watkins’ perceived value is a top 10-15 WR, but you believe he’s actually a top 16-20 WR—and you happen to have Watkins—then he’s a sales target; you’ll likely acquire more value than what he’s worth (to you).
Hundreds of players’ values vary narrowly or moderately or widely at any moment. Regardless of how much or how little, the point is they do vary. Traders capitalize on this variance, seizing underrated talent and jettisoning overrated talent.
Sometimes I’ll trade the same player multiple times in the same season, in the same league, selling when his value’s high and buying back when he’s (potentially) reached a low point. That’s why I’m always looking to trade: there’s value to be had . . . gradual roster improvements that over time lead to championship-caliber teams.
So I contacted all 13 opponents yesterday because I want to create a dialogue with each. I’d never communicated with any of them before. All are fantasy football writers who presumably know what they’re doing. But we all have blind spots. Someday these next 10 weeks—before the trade deadline—I hope to capitalize on their concerns over a player they view as overvalued (but who I view as undervalued). It starts with an e-mail and hopefully builds into open lines of communication.
Three people got back to me immediately. The others are still radio silent. I won’t press it. Developing trade partners takes time. And trust. And a very subtle communication approach.
The art of trading is understanding which players’ perceived values are higher or lower than their actual value. So if Melvin Gordon’s perceived valued is a top 20-25 RB, but you believe he’s actually a top 14-18 RB, then he becomes an acquisition target; you’ll likely pay less than what he’s worth (to you).
Conversely, if Sammy Watkins’ perceived value is a top 10-15 WR, but you believe he’s actually a top 16-20 WR—and you happen to have Watkins—then he’s a sales target; you’ll likely acquire more value than what he’s worth (to you).
Hundreds of players’ values vary narrowly or moderately or widely at any moment. Regardless of how much or how little, the point is they do vary. Traders capitalize on this variance, seizing underrated talent and jettisoning overrated talent.
Sometimes I’ll trade the same player multiple times in the same season, in the same league, selling when his value’s high and buying back when he’s (potentially) reached a low point. That’s why I’m always looking to trade: there’s value to be had . . . gradual roster improvements that over time lead to championship-caliber teams.
So I contacted all 13 opponents yesterday because I want to create a dialogue with each. I’d never communicated with any of them before. All are fantasy football writers who presumably know what they’re doing. But we all have blind spots. Someday these next 10 weeks—before the trade deadline—I hope to capitalize on their concerns over a player they view as overvalued (but who I view as undervalued). It starts with an e-mail and hopefully builds into open lines of communication.
Three people got back to me immediately. The others are still radio silent. I won’t press it. Developing trade partners takes time. And trust. And a very subtle communication approach.