Yesterday Joe Gross on this board asked me who are some of my sell-high
/ buy-low guys. I like Joe, so here’s a
player at each major position:
Sell High
- Matt Ryan (Highest scoring QB) is on pace for 5,173 passing yards, 37
TDs, and seven INTs. Is he surrounded by
his best team in years—maybe ever?
Yes. But his opening schedule
wasn’t exactly difficult. He now faces
Carolina, Denver, and Seattle in succession.
And side from San Francisco, weeks 12-16 don’t look promising. Cash out before his value does.
- Lamar Miller (19th highest scoring RB) is on pace for 395
carries and 448 total touches. This is a
tricky case, because a healthy Miller will move up the rankings this
season. In that sense, he’s a buy-low
guy. But I don’t think people will give
him up for less than a top 12 overall player.
His over-usage is what concerns me.
If I can part ways with him for an elite RB or WR, I’d do it.
- Marvin Jones (Highest scoring WR) – This one might be a bit too easy,
but the question is, how overvalued is he?
Jones was on pace for top 25 WR numbers before Sunday’s blow-up. And who did he pummel for 205 yards and two
TDs Sunday? The Sam Shields-less Packers. Sounds familiar? Stefon Diggs did almost the exact same thing
the week before. With Green Bay on a bye
this week, we’ll have to wait for another WR (see below) to take advantage—assuming
Shields remains sidelined. For now, sell
Jones for a sturdy top 15 RB or WR and feel grateful, as Detroit’s
spread-the-wealth offense is for real.
- Zach Miller (5th highest scoring TE) enjoyed a career day
in Week 3 with 78 yards and two TDs. But
that won’t be the norm in an offense where he’s fourth or fifth on the pecking
order. If you can trade him for an
underperforming top 6 TE, go for it.
Buy Low
- Blake Bortles (21st highest scoring QB) – Bortles is too
good and has too many weapons not to pop onto QB1 turf going forward. The abysmal running game will pick up, and
the balanced attack will improve his TD opportunities. Keep in mind the Jaguars are third-to-last in
scoring in the AFC. Last season they led
the AFC South and were eighth in the conference. There’s plenty of room to grow.
- Eddie Lacy (26th highest scoring RB) – The TDs will come
for Green Bay’s bellcow. Lacy’s 5.0 YPC
demonstrates his conditioning/weight issues are (at least for now) behind
him. I’ve been eyeing him since Week
1. The only difference between him and a
top 10 RB scorer like Melvin Gordon are touchdowns.
- Odell Beckham, Jr (30th highest scoring WR) – ODB is
eighth in the league in receiving yards.
If you’re looking for buy-low guys, examine their touches (and in many
cases, targets) and yards. Ignore
touchdowns, which often artificially inflate perceived value. While I’ve been down on Eli Manning all year,
Beckham will find the end zone plenty this season.
- Jordan Reed (16th highest scoring TE) keeps racking up
yards, but no scores. Keep in mind Kirk
Cousins has only three TDs through three games.
Reed will return to greatness as long as he remains healthy.