Before diving into Thursday Night Football, I want to focus briefly on a few answers to frequent questions. These are not, obviously, universal answers. You’ll hear varying opinions from a lot of people. But this is how I approach the game:
-- “The worst player on my roster is a WR4/5. Should I drop him for an RB handcuff?” The answer is almost always “yes.” If you play in a 16-20 team league where WR4/5s are often startable, then that’s the exception. Otherwise, don’t settle for mediocrity; embrace the risk of low downside and high upside.
-- “I’m trying to sell high on this player and no one wants him. Should I keep offering him up?” The answer generally is “Don’t be that guy.” Don’t be the guy who harasses opponents to the point where they feel physically ill every time your name pops up on their caller ID. To sell a guy high, seek a minimal upgrade. Don’t try to fleece your opponent. If your player truly is overvalued—and you’ve identified this before your opponent has—then surely you can walk away with a slight advantage while not making your opponent feel like s/he got a bad deal.
-- “What do you think of a trade where I give up an RB3 or WR3 for a low-end TE1?” I think it’s terrible, unless you believe that low-end TE1 has near-elite or elite TE potential. Last season Zach Ertz had the 10th most TE fantasy points (97, averaging 6.5 per game in 15 games played). The 20th highest scoring TE was Owen Daniels (70 points, averaging 4.4 per game in 16 games played). Do you really want to trade a weekly—or nearly weekly—starter for a guy who will net you 1-2 more points per game than you’re currently getting from your TE spot?
As for tonight, one would thing Tyrod Taylor can’t get much worse than what he posted Week 1. But with Sammy Watkins and Charles Clay hurting, it all comes down to whether Watkins can put the pain behind him and perform like a true #1 receiver. Robert Woods is a great flier in daily leagues because he’s so cheap, and in deep leagues if you’re desperate for a boom-bust flex guy. Mike Gillislee might not break out against the Jets’ D, but he’s a must-roster RB handcuff in 14+ team leagues. And I’m having trouble reading how LeSean McCoy will do, but I’m urging folks to temper expectations if they want 12+ points out of that RB slot; I’m anticipating 7-9 points.
On the other side of the ball, is Matt Forte the Jets’ bellcow? I’m not buying it. Sell high on the nearly 31-year-old; he won’t replicate Week 1’s yardage total this season. The same goes for TD-dependent Eric Decker, whose fantasy point total last season was too touchdown-heavy to be easily duplicated. Brandon Marshall will assert himself tonight, while Quincy Enunwa (who was on my top 300 preseason rankings all summer—though not high enough) pulls back to WR5/6 territory the rest of the year.
-- “The worst player on my roster is a WR4/5. Should I drop him for an RB handcuff?” The answer is almost always “yes.” If you play in a 16-20 team league where WR4/5s are often startable, then that’s the exception. Otherwise, don’t settle for mediocrity; embrace the risk of low downside and high upside.
-- “I’m trying to sell high on this player and no one wants him. Should I keep offering him up?” The answer generally is “Don’t be that guy.” Don’t be the guy who harasses opponents to the point where they feel physically ill every time your name pops up on their caller ID. To sell a guy high, seek a minimal upgrade. Don’t try to fleece your opponent. If your player truly is overvalued—and you’ve identified this before your opponent has—then surely you can walk away with a slight advantage while not making your opponent feel like s/he got a bad deal.
-- “What do you think of a trade where I give up an RB3 or WR3 for a low-end TE1?” I think it’s terrible, unless you believe that low-end TE1 has near-elite or elite TE potential. Last season Zach Ertz had the 10th most TE fantasy points (97, averaging 6.5 per game in 15 games played). The 20th highest scoring TE was Owen Daniels (70 points, averaging 4.4 per game in 16 games played). Do you really want to trade a weekly—or nearly weekly—starter for a guy who will net you 1-2 more points per game than you’re currently getting from your TE spot?
As for tonight, one would thing Tyrod Taylor can’t get much worse than what he posted Week 1. But with Sammy Watkins and Charles Clay hurting, it all comes down to whether Watkins can put the pain behind him and perform like a true #1 receiver. Robert Woods is a great flier in daily leagues because he’s so cheap, and in deep leagues if you’re desperate for a boom-bust flex guy. Mike Gillislee might not break out against the Jets’ D, but he’s a must-roster RB handcuff in 14+ team leagues. And I’m having trouble reading how LeSean McCoy will do, but I’m urging folks to temper expectations if they want 12+ points out of that RB slot; I’m anticipating 7-9 points.
On the other side of the ball, is Matt Forte the Jets’ bellcow? I’m not buying it. Sell high on the nearly 31-year-old; he won’t replicate Week 1’s yardage total this season. The same goes for TD-dependent Eric Decker, whose fantasy point total last season was too touchdown-heavy to be easily duplicated. Brandon Marshall will assert himself tonight, while Quincy Enunwa (who was on my top 300 preseason rankings all summer—though not high enough) pulls back to WR5/6 territory the rest of the year.