Why DSTs and Kickers Can Be Difference Makers, and Bold Predictions 37 and 38: Josh Lambo and Dolphins DST
I don’t often discuss kickers and defenses / special teams. But when I do, it’s often to reinforce the fact that, statistically, they matter. An elite defense can transform a fantasy lineup; just ask those who drafted the Broncos last summer—a DST that racked up more standard-scoring fantasy points (182) than every TE and all but three RBs. You would have been laughed at for taking them in the fourth round. Yet they yielded late-first-round value.
Elite kickers rarely score more than elite DSTs, but they still matter. When I drafted Brandon McManus with my final pick last August, I knew he’d be a steal. But no one could have guessed that he’d collect 82 fantasy points in his first seven games. That’s a 187-point clip over 16 games. While he tailed off after that (just as many other positional players do from time to time), McManus was a difference-maker by outscoring most opponents’ kickers by 3-6 points a week.
With all this in mind, I’m predicting big things for two universally undrafted fantasy contributors:
(37) Josh Lambo (K-27 ADP) will be a top 10 kicker. A big leg. A solid offense. What else do you need in a fantasy kicker? Ah yes, accuracy. But the former professional soccer player proved he could handle the NFL as a a 24-year-old rookie last season. While going 26-for-32 (81%) on field goal attempts, he was 4-for-5 from 50+. That’s what I want to see in a fantasy kicker. And his 11-for-11 mark from inside 40 suggests the Chargers will ask him to keep trotting onto the field. Lambo is simply the biggest kicker steal in the draft.
(38) Dolphins DST (DST-23 ADP) will be a top 12 DST. They’re getting no love because their secondary. I get it. But I believe the defensive line will be much improved over last season, anchored by a revitalized Ndamukong Suh. Most importantly, the offense will help the defense: the addition of Arian Foster will help move the chains, while Head Coach Adam Gase will help Ryan Tannehill finally put it all together. Keep this in mind: Miami was 30th in time of possession last season. If the Dolphins can do a significantly better job controlling the clock—and I believe they will—the defense will be better rested. Don’t let Miami’s first two games (@Seattle, @New England) scare you away. The rest of their schedule would be manageable for a middling D. Miami’s playmakers will push them into the next tier.
Elite kickers rarely score more than elite DSTs, but they still matter. When I drafted Brandon McManus with my final pick last August, I knew he’d be a steal. But no one could have guessed that he’d collect 82 fantasy points in his first seven games. That’s a 187-point clip over 16 games. While he tailed off after that (just as many other positional players do from time to time), McManus was a difference-maker by outscoring most opponents’ kickers by 3-6 points a week.
With all this in mind, I’m predicting big things for two universally undrafted fantasy contributors:
(37) Josh Lambo (K-27 ADP) will be a top 10 kicker. A big leg. A solid offense. What else do you need in a fantasy kicker? Ah yes, accuracy. But the former professional soccer player proved he could handle the NFL as a a 24-year-old rookie last season. While going 26-for-32 (81%) on field goal attempts, he was 4-for-5 from 50+. That’s what I want to see in a fantasy kicker. And his 11-for-11 mark from inside 40 suggests the Chargers will ask him to keep trotting onto the field. Lambo is simply the biggest kicker steal in the draft.
(38) Dolphins DST (DST-23 ADP) will be a top 12 DST. They’re getting no love because their secondary. I get it. But I believe the defensive line will be much improved over last season, anchored by a revitalized Ndamukong Suh. Most importantly, the offense will help the defense: the addition of Arian Foster will help move the chains, while Head Coach Adam Gase will help Ryan Tannehill finally put it all together. Keep this in mind: Miami was 30th in time of possession last season. If the Dolphins can do a significantly better job controlling the clock—and I believe they will—the defense will be better rested. Don’t let Miami’s first two games (@Seattle, @New England) scare you away. The rest of their schedule would be manageable for a middling D. Miami’s playmakers will push them into the next tier.