If new information shows that my previous thinking might have been wrong, I'm okay with that. Actually, I'm thrilled: better to be right today than wrong tomorrow. I've been pushing Kelvin Benjamin most of this summer in the strong belief that he'd be back to 100% by Week 1. There were no clear indications suggesting otherwise. In fact, a few weeks ago head coach Ron Rivera said Benjamin was in "pretty doggone good form."
But yesterday evening, ESPN's David Newton shared something new:
"Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin struggling a bit with conditioning. Coach Ron Rivera noted on Saturday that Benjamin has been getting winded, particularly after a deep pattern or two. He said the goal was to get Benjamin, coming off a knee injury that ended his season last year in camp, where he can handle 30-35 snaps by the end of the preseason."
While I'm not ready to dismiss my prediction that the third-year pro will have an exceptional season, these next couple of weeks are critically important. If Benjamin isn't a reliable every-down starter by Week 1, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn will get big short-term bumps, while I'll be forced to shift gears on Benjamin.
This is the nature of fantasy football: what we didn't know yesterday might be learned today, and that's always a good thing, even if it means admitting we were wrong all along.
This past week I’ve discussed some QB and RB battles I’m following closely in training camp. Although the stakes are lower, the various competitions for #3 WR roles are heating up, and some have significant fantasy implications.
• Davante Adams vs. Packers backups: With Jordy Nelson missing the entire 2015 season and Randall Cobb ailing for most of it, Adams was given every opportunity to claim the #3 job last year. Instead, despite showing glimpses of promise, he failed to lock down the role, reeling in 50 passes on 93 targets and only one score. This preseason, the job is once again his to lose. Equally promising Jeff Janis doesn’t appear to be NFL starter-ready (yet), and his recent hand injury sets him back even further. Jared Abbrederis is no better than a fill-in contributor, and Ty Montgomery remains sidelined after ankle surgery in December. With each passing week, Adams continues his ascent on my draft board, as no one else is poised to leapfrog him on the depth chart.
• Rashad Greene vs. Marqise Lee: This position battle shouldn’t have a huge fantasy impact. But Greene is one of my sleeper candidates for top 50 WR production. While I’m not there yet, expect the second-year pro to take another step forward if he locks down the #3 WR role. Meanwhile, Lee’s injury history has been the biggest stumbling block to his once somewhat promising career. If he can put it all together this month, he has the tools to undermine Greene’s WR5 potential.
• Jaelen Strong vs. Texans competitors: As many of you know, I’ve very down in Houston’s passing game this season. DeAndre Hopkins has even bounced outside my top 10 WRs. But don’t ignore Jaelen Strong’s potential. Highly touted last preseason, he looked fantastic in his debut against the Colts last October (two catches for two TDs) and could start opposite Hopkins by midseason. For now the entire WR depth chart behind Nuk is in flux. Rookie Will Fuller has been running with the first team, so Strong, Cecil Shorts, and Braxton Miller are the likeliest candidates for the #3 job. I’ve viewed Shorts as overrated each preseason since 2013, and that’s not changing now. Miller, a former college QB, could settle into a situational playmaker role. Strong should win this battle.
• Chris Hogan vs. Malcolm Mitchell vs. Aaron Dobson: This is my favorite battle for a #3 WR spot, because the implications are huge. Even if you’re Tom Brady’s #4 or #5 receiving option—especially in light of Julian Edelman’s offseason injury recovery and Danny Amendola’s chronic injury issues—you could earn a prominent weekly role. Hogan was my early pick to win this job, but a shoulder injury sidelined him in early August. Rookie Mitchell has nice upside, but a recent dislocated elbow puts his Week 1 availability in doubt. And while Dobson might be the safest pick from a team standpoint (he’s developed the most chemistry with Brady over the years), he’s three years removed from a meaningful role. It’s a wide open competition, and I think Mitchell has the best shot at weekly fantasy relevance by midseason.
But yesterday evening, ESPN's David Newton shared something new:
"Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin struggling a bit with conditioning. Coach Ron Rivera noted on Saturday that Benjamin has been getting winded, particularly after a deep pattern or two. He said the goal was to get Benjamin, coming off a knee injury that ended his season last year in camp, where he can handle 30-35 snaps by the end of the preseason."
While I'm not ready to dismiss my prediction that the third-year pro will have an exceptional season, these next couple of weeks are critically important. If Benjamin isn't a reliable every-down starter by Week 1, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn will get big short-term bumps, while I'll be forced to shift gears on Benjamin.
This is the nature of fantasy football: what we didn't know yesterday might be learned today, and that's always a good thing, even if it means admitting we were wrong all along.
* * *
• Davante Adams vs. Packers backups: With Jordy Nelson missing the entire 2015 season and Randall Cobb ailing for most of it, Adams was given every opportunity to claim the #3 job last year. Instead, despite showing glimpses of promise, he failed to lock down the role, reeling in 50 passes on 93 targets and only one score. This preseason, the job is once again his to lose. Equally promising Jeff Janis doesn’t appear to be NFL starter-ready (yet), and his recent hand injury sets him back even further. Jared Abbrederis is no better than a fill-in contributor, and Ty Montgomery remains sidelined after ankle surgery in December. With each passing week, Adams continues his ascent on my draft board, as no one else is poised to leapfrog him on the depth chart.
• Rashad Greene vs. Marqise Lee: This position battle shouldn’t have a huge fantasy impact. But Greene is one of my sleeper candidates for top 50 WR production. While I’m not there yet, expect the second-year pro to take another step forward if he locks down the #3 WR role. Meanwhile, Lee’s injury history has been the biggest stumbling block to his once somewhat promising career. If he can put it all together this month, he has the tools to undermine Greene’s WR5 potential.
• Jaelen Strong vs. Texans competitors: As many of you know, I’ve very down in Houston’s passing game this season. DeAndre Hopkins has even bounced outside my top 10 WRs. But don’t ignore Jaelen Strong’s potential. Highly touted last preseason, he looked fantastic in his debut against the Colts last October (two catches for two TDs) and could start opposite Hopkins by midseason. For now the entire WR depth chart behind Nuk is in flux. Rookie Will Fuller has been running with the first team, so Strong, Cecil Shorts, and Braxton Miller are the likeliest candidates for the #3 job. I’ve viewed Shorts as overrated each preseason since 2013, and that’s not changing now. Miller, a former college QB, could settle into a situational playmaker role. Strong should win this battle.
• Chris Hogan vs. Malcolm Mitchell vs. Aaron Dobson: This is my favorite battle for a #3 WR spot, because the implications are huge. Even if you’re Tom Brady’s #4 or #5 receiving option—especially in light of Julian Edelman’s offseason injury recovery and Danny Amendola’s chronic injury issues—you could earn a prominent weekly role. Hogan was my early pick to win this job, but a shoulder injury sidelined him in early August. Rookie Mitchell has nice upside, but a recent dislocated elbow puts his Week 1 availability in doubt. And while Dobson might be the safest pick from a team standpoint (he’s developed the most chemistry with Brady over the years), he’s three years removed from a meaningful role. It’s a wide open competition, and I think Mitchell has the best shot at weekly fantasy relevance by midseason.