The Tuesday Trader -- In-Draft Trade Strategy #2: Eye on the Prize

Every Tuesday in August (minus the first two) we’re highlighting draft-day trade strategies that actually  work.  Not always.  Not with everyone.  But all have been tested with varying degrees of success.  My motto is, “If you don’t ask, they won’t answer.”  If you’re not posing trade ideas to other managers, a great deal isn’t likely to fall in your lap.

Last Tuesday we covered the “Top Pick Cutback,” in which you give up a high first-round pick if—and only if—your pre-draft research shows that you can lock in comparable value later that round.  Today let’s focus on the similarly “not sure what else to call it”-named “Eye on the Prize.”

Your pre-draft research has produced three targeted undervalued players at each position.  One of them (a QB) has just left the board in the sixth round.  Another QB (not on your list) is taken with the next pick.  All signs point to at least a mini-run on this position, and you’re still seven picks away from selecting, leaving your two remaining undervalued QBs’ impending availability in doubt.  It’s imperative that you trade up immediately.  But don’t panic.  Simply turn to the guy currently on the clock and state in a clear, calm voice, “Johnny, if you’re not sure who to take next, trade it to me with your following pick, and I’ll give you my next two picks and my final pick.  That way you’ll get a boost next round and in the final round.”

It’s not helpful to call out, “Anyone wanna trade?”  It’s a time for directness; quivering, stammering, or fainting will only hurt your cause.  And don’t say “. . . whom to take next . . .”  Grammar counts against you in fantasy draft rooms.  Utter simple words in a friendly, firm manner.  Also notice I said, “. . . if you’re not sure . . .”  You’re tacitly telling Johnny that you’re fine if he says “no,” which is much less threatening than insisting on a trade.

From Johnny’s perspective, if he doesn’t know who he wants, he’ll benefit from trading down that round, getting a better pick the next round and another last-round pick (which could be an upgrade over his existing last-round pick).  And he could push back a bit, asking for your second-to-last or third-to-last rounder instead of your last-rounder.  If that happens, accept it.

At their best, trades are win-wins, and Eye on the Prize is no exception.  Johnny’s unsure which player among a half-dozen he should take, and you’re very sure that your targeted QB will sharply outperform expectations.  When the deal is made, each side is happy.  If Johnny knew what you knew about that QB, he wouldn’t have traded.  But that’s where research comes in: the more prepared you are, the easier it is to trade your way to the top.