A couple months ago I had the chance to talk with a former NFL GM for about an hour, so I asked him a ton of questions about draft day. How did he and his crew prepare? How much stock did they put into third-party rankings of college players (vs. their own first-hand scouting and research)? How much did they factor in opposing teams’ positional needs? And so on.
One of the things that fascinated me most was his approach to round-by-round drafting. I asked whether he played it relatively conservatively or focused more on high-upside guys. “In the first round,” he said, “I never wanted to make a mistake. So I picked NFL-ready starters who could get the job done.” The same was true for rounds 2 and 3, opting for credible talents with high floors, even if their ceilings were slightly capped.
The later rounds, he said, encouraged more risk taking. It didn’t mean he went only high-upside, but given the choice between conservative (team depth) and risky (potential starter) in later rounds, he found the needle-in-a-haystack approach—spread out over multiple rounds—increased the likelihood of finding a guy who maybe needed one or two more years to develop, but who had certifiable starter potential.
The same is true in fantasy football. First, I try not to get too cute in the early rounds, aiming for a sure-fire star in round 1, a near-elite guy in round 2, and so on until I have as many objectively great players as are available. For example, while Ezekiel Elliott could lead all RBs in fantasy points this year, I’m playing it safer in the opening frame, opting for a more experienced, higher-floor fantasy stud. Some might disagree with my assessment of Elliott—that his floor is actually huge. But since I’m not convinced, I’m acting on this assessment.
As the rounds get deeper, I get bolder. Using my draft board and my understanding of how players are generally being valued (through measurements like ADPs and where they go in mock drafts), I can figure out where a decent percentage of players will be taken, and then draft aggressively to secure my prime targets. For example, Jerick McKinnon’s overall ADP is 149. While writing this post, I did a 12-team mock draft where he was selected 136th. He’s my 116th ranked player, meaning if I start targeting him in the 10th round of a 12-team league, no one else is likely to grab him.
If I can land, say, at least a half-dozen McKinnon-caliber players—moderately low floor and fairly high ceiling—that’s a successful draft. I’m not trying to get a top 14-20 TE in the 13th round to back up my starter. I’m definitely not selecting a third QB in the 11th round in a one-QB league. These are essentially wasted picks.
In drafts last summer this approach yielded me players like Allen Hurns (at the time, the 80th WR taken in drafts and 158th overall, on average), Marvin Jones (WR-62 ADP, 143 overall), and Tyler Eifert (TE-24 ADP, 204 overall).
Of course, this strategy doesn’t always work. I also regularly ended up last year with targets like Knile Davis, Eddie Royal, and (as many of you know, and which must be repeated constantly) Vernon Davis.
It was easy to drop Knile, Eddie, and Vernon once I realized they weren’t going to pan out. It’s not so easy, however, to add breakout players after they’ve broken out. That’s why I go bold in later rounds, scooping up players who likely will be either busts or regular fantasy starters.
And that brings me back to Jerick McKinnon. Some leagues have limits on how many players you can roster at each position. I hate limits. I want as many handcuff RBs as my league allows. Gimme McKinnon, Christine Michael, DeAngelo Williams, and Devontae Booker in double-digit rounds, and I’m thrilled. At least one of these guys could be an RB1 by the fantasy playoffs.
Play the odds by going bold. It’s much more effective, on balance, than settling for a TE2.
One of the things that fascinated me most was his approach to round-by-round drafting. I asked whether he played it relatively conservatively or focused more on high-upside guys. “In the first round,” he said, “I never wanted to make a mistake. So I picked NFL-ready starters who could get the job done.” The same was true for rounds 2 and 3, opting for credible talents with high floors, even if their ceilings were slightly capped.
The later rounds, he said, encouraged more risk taking. It didn’t mean he went only high-upside, but given the choice between conservative (team depth) and risky (potential starter) in later rounds, he found the needle-in-a-haystack approach—spread out over multiple rounds—increased the likelihood of finding a guy who maybe needed one or two more years to develop, but who had certifiable starter potential.
The same is true in fantasy football. First, I try not to get too cute in the early rounds, aiming for a sure-fire star in round 1, a near-elite guy in round 2, and so on until I have as many objectively great players as are available. For example, while Ezekiel Elliott could lead all RBs in fantasy points this year, I’m playing it safer in the opening frame, opting for a more experienced, higher-floor fantasy stud. Some might disagree with my assessment of Elliott—that his floor is actually huge. But since I’m not convinced, I’m acting on this assessment.
As the rounds get deeper, I get bolder. Using my draft board and my understanding of how players are generally being valued (through measurements like ADPs and where they go in mock drafts), I can figure out where a decent percentage of players will be taken, and then draft aggressively to secure my prime targets. For example, Jerick McKinnon’s overall ADP is 149. While writing this post, I did a 12-team mock draft where he was selected 136th. He’s my 116th ranked player, meaning if I start targeting him in the 10th round of a 12-team league, no one else is likely to grab him.
If I can land, say, at least a half-dozen McKinnon-caliber players—moderately low floor and fairly high ceiling—that’s a successful draft. I’m not trying to get a top 14-20 TE in the 13th round to back up my starter. I’m definitely not selecting a third QB in the 11th round in a one-QB league. These are essentially wasted picks.
In drafts last summer this approach yielded me players like Allen Hurns (at the time, the 80th WR taken in drafts and 158th overall, on average), Marvin Jones (WR-62 ADP, 143 overall), and Tyler Eifert (TE-24 ADP, 204 overall).
Of course, this strategy doesn’t always work. I also regularly ended up last year with targets like Knile Davis, Eddie Royal, and (as many of you know, and which must be repeated constantly) Vernon Davis.
It was easy to drop Knile, Eddie, and Vernon once I realized they weren’t going to pan out. It’s not so easy, however, to add breakout players after they’ve broken out. That’s why I go bold in later rounds, scooping up players who likely will be either busts or regular fantasy starters.
And that brings me back to Jerick McKinnon. Some leagues have limits on how many players you can roster at each position. I hate limits. I want as many handcuff RBs as my league allows. Gimme McKinnon, Christine Michael, DeAngelo Williams, and Devontae Booker in double-digit rounds, and I’m thrilled. At least one of these guys could be an RB1 by the fantasy playoffs.
Play the odds by going bold. It’s much more effective, on balance, than settling for a TE2.