Preseason Rankings Subscriptions, and Bold Predictions 13 and 14: Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon
Before we get to "bold predictions," a brief reminder: If you want to receive the FF4W Top 300 Preseason Rankings every week (and 2-3 times a week later this month), sign up on this page. A community member who'd like to remain anonymous made a major improvement to it last week, finding a way to seamlessly incorporate positional ADPs and bye weeks into the spreadsheet (see sample attached). It's a major upgrade that's given subscribers (including me) a lot more value.
And now with the predictions: I'm either crazy insane or crazy right to mistrust AP this season. A betting person should still bet on great numbers. But I'm confident he won't be a near-elite RB.
(13) Adrian Peterson (RB-3 ADP) will not be a top 10 RB. Peterson crushed it last year like no 30+ year-old RB since Ricky Williams. None of the big-name experts place him below 4th this preseason, and among 76 expert rankings compiled by Fantasy Pros, no one’s got him worse than 8th. This isn’t the first time I’ve questioned conventional wisdom regarding AP. In a preseason post nearly three years ago, I shared why his universal #1 overall ranking was misguided:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/554782841236366
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/08/bold-prediction-adrian-peterson.html)
The signs are even clearer heading into 2016, not only because of concerns over age (31 1/2) and workload (350+ touches in 2015 is a red flag), but also because Jerick McKinnon should eat more into Peterson’s touches. There's also speculation that Minnesota will operate more out of the shotgun, which is not AP's strength (career 3.8 YPC in the shotgun). I’ll likely be the only fantasy manager in my drafts avoiding AP in the first round, and I’m fine with that.
(14) Jerick McKinnon (RB-62 ADP) will be a top 45 RB. McKinnon’s ADP is nonsensical; it’s as if most of the fantasy world simply isn’t paying attention. Or maybe they believe Peterson’s presence will keep other Viking RBs at bay. The third-year back’s career 4.9 YPC and impressive passing-game chops make him a huge-upside RB4 in a run-friendly Minnesota offense. After earning 73 touches in 2015, McKinnon should crack 120 this year, making him a must-own handcuff target and viable roster addition in most leagues. If you believe AP will dominate and stay healthy, ignore this prediction and feel free to challenge me openly. If you believe otherwise, I urge you to act on it.
And now with the predictions: I'm either crazy insane or crazy right to mistrust AP this season. A betting person should still bet on great numbers. But I'm confident he won't be a near-elite RB.
(13) Adrian Peterson (RB-3 ADP) will not be a top 10 RB. Peterson crushed it last year like no 30+ year-old RB since Ricky Williams. None of the big-name experts place him below 4th this preseason, and among 76 expert rankings compiled by Fantasy Pros, no one’s got him worse than 8th. This isn’t the first time I’ve questioned conventional wisdom regarding AP. In a preseason post nearly three years ago, I shared why his universal #1 overall ranking was misguided:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/554782841236366
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/08/bold-prediction-adrian-peterson.html)
The signs are even clearer heading into 2016, not only because of concerns over age (31 1/2) and workload (350+ touches in 2015 is a red flag), but also because Jerick McKinnon should eat more into Peterson’s touches. There's also speculation that Minnesota will operate more out of the shotgun, which is not AP's strength (career 3.8 YPC in the shotgun). I’ll likely be the only fantasy manager in my drafts avoiding AP in the first round, and I’m fine with that.
(14) Jerick McKinnon (RB-62 ADP) will be a top 45 RB. McKinnon’s ADP is nonsensical; it’s as if most of the fantasy world simply isn’t paying attention. Or maybe they believe Peterson’s presence will keep other Viking RBs at bay. The third-year back’s career 4.9 YPC and impressive passing-game chops make him a huge-upside RB4 in a run-friendly Minnesota offense. After earning 73 touches in 2015, McKinnon should crack 120 this year, making him a must-own handcuff target and viable roster addition in most leagues. If you believe AP will dominate and stay healthy, ignore this prediction and feel free to challenge me openly. If you believe otherwise, I urge you to act on it.