We could spend all day discussing the latest developments in New England. Here’s a snapshot, along with fantasy implications.
Am I missing anything? This being Bill Belichick’s Patriots, we should fully expect a “next man up” approach, leading to an 11-5 record and another division title. But this doesn’t make things any easier. James White is expected to handle passing-down duties for now, though he’s conceivably a downgrade from Lewis. Whit has moved up to RB-58 on my draft board and will crack the top 50 if Lewis lands on reserve/PUP.
The bigger issue is Tom Brady: He was sacked 38 times last season—the third most on his career. He’s been sacked 99 times in the past three years, which isn’t quite Ryan Tannehill territory, but it’s not a sustainable clip for most 39-year-olds. As a result, I’ve dropped him two more QB spots on my draft board, as the risk of 2-3 sacks per game—not to mention any number of hard hits that a weakened o-line can’t stop—increases.
And now, more bold predictions:
(33) Jameis Winston (QB-17 ADP) will be a top 11 QB. Winston had one of the most simultaneously forgettable and phenomenal rookie seasons of any rookie QB in years. He averaged only 33.4 passes per game. His starting TE missed nine games; his starting #2 wideout missed six games. His #1 receiver led the NFC in drops. Yet Winston threw for over 4,000 yards and collected 28 TDs compared to 17 turnovers. Imagine the just-turned-23-year-old Mike Evans taking another step forward. Imagine the 33-year-old Vincent Jackson staying healthy. And of course, understand that Winston is only getting better. His work ethic this offseason and preseason has been well documented. This is a young man primed for dynasty-level fantasy consideration for years to come. The buzz begins in 2016.
(34) Charles Johnson (N/A Positional ADP) will be a top 50 WR. We know that previous year’s stats don’t mean much when the factors contributing to those numbers no longer apply. Johnson fell off the fantasy map in 2015 after enjoying a couple of breakout performances in 2014. Now 27 years old, and with only 40 NFL receptions under his belt, Johnson looked like an afterthought after Minnesota invested a first round pick in WR Laquon Treadwell this offseason. Yet Treadwell’s camp development has been slow, meaning Johnson should have an opportunity to prove last year’s regression was a fluke. Bolstering his case is a report that a rib injury limited him since September. Now presumably 100% healthy, he should once again deliver RB4+ numbers most weeks.
Finally, in light of many people drafting these next couple of weeks, I'm now distributing updated top 300 rankings to twice a week. Last night subscribers received the latest draft spreadsheet.
And because this is crunch time for a lot of people, I'll accept subscriber requests: If you want to see updated rankings on off days, I'll get them out to you.
Anyone can sign up at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com.
- Right tackle Sebastian Vollmer might miss the season with a hip injury.
- Guard Shaq Mason suffered a broken hand, and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out.
- Guard Jonathan Cooper remains sidelined with a foot injury suffered three weeks ago.
- Dion Lewis will go under the knife again, this time to “clean up” his original knee surgery.
Am I missing anything? This being Bill Belichick’s Patriots, we should fully expect a “next man up” approach, leading to an 11-5 record and another division title. But this doesn’t make things any easier. James White is expected to handle passing-down duties for now, though he’s conceivably a downgrade from Lewis. Whit has moved up to RB-58 on my draft board and will crack the top 50 if Lewis lands on reserve/PUP.
The bigger issue is Tom Brady: He was sacked 38 times last season—the third most on his career. He’s been sacked 99 times in the past three years, which isn’t quite Ryan Tannehill territory, but it’s not a sustainable clip for most 39-year-olds. As a result, I’ve dropped him two more QB spots on my draft board, as the risk of 2-3 sacks per game—not to mention any number of hard hits that a weakened o-line can’t stop—increases.
And now, more bold predictions:
(33) Jameis Winston (QB-17 ADP) will be a top 11 QB. Winston had one of the most simultaneously forgettable and phenomenal rookie seasons of any rookie QB in years. He averaged only 33.4 passes per game. His starting TE missed nine games; his starting #2 wideout missed six games. His #1 receiver led the NFC in drops. Yet Winston threw for over 4,000 yards and collected 28 TDs compared to 17 turnovers. Imagine the just-turned-23-year-old Mike Evans taking another step forward. Imagine the 33-year-old Vincent Jackson staying healthy. And of course, understand that Winston is only getting better. His work ethic this offseason and preseason has been well documented. This is a young man primed for dynasty-level fantasy consideration for years to come. The buzz begins in 2016.
(34) Charles Johnson (N/A Positional ADP) will be a top 50 WR. We know that previous year’s stats don’t mean much when the factors contributing to those numbers no longer apply. Johnson fell off the fantasy map in 2015 after enjoying a couple of breakout performances in 2014. Now 27 years old, and with only 40 NFL receptions under his belt, Johnson looked like an afterthought after Minnesota invested a first round pick in WR Laquon Treadwell this offseason. Yet Treadwell’s camp development has been slow, meaning Johnson should have an opportunity to prove last year’s regression was a fluke. Bolstering his case is a report that a rib injury limited him since September. Now presumably 100% healthy, he should once again deliver RB4+ numbers most weeks.
Finally, in light of many people drafting these next couple of weeks, I'm now distributing updated top 300 rankings to twice a week. Last night subscribers received the latest draft spreadsheet.
And because this is crunch time for a lot of people, I'll accept subscriber requests: If you want to see updated rankings on off days, I'll get them out to you.
Anyone can sign up at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com.