I devote a full chapter of my book to “executing uneven trades that seem fair.” There is an art to dominating leagues through trades. So this season I’m introducing a new feature called The Tuesday Trader, where each Tuesday during the regular season I’ll discuss which players are about to pop and which ones are on their way down. I’ll also share thoughts on how to spin perceived player values to your advantage, using subtlety and seizing on opponents’ insecurities to score big (yes, it sounds too easy, and yes, I’ve found that it very often works).
To get things started, for the next three Tuesdays I’ll share three draft-day trade strategies that, when effectively implemented, will give you an immediate boost. The first approach is called “Top Pick Cutback”:
You have a very high first round draft pick. After thorough research you have identified a concentration of elite talent, such that dropping a few spots will not adversely impact your pursuit of victory. For example, you might anticipate that, outside of the top four or five RBs, there are also a few QBs and a couple of WRs who legitimately could become the year’s #1 fantasy scorer. Or there might be consensus among owners of which players will be picked first and second. If you have one of these two picks, and believe that one or both of these players are overvalued, then trade down in the first round in exchange for trading up in, say, the second and fourth rounds.
What would this mean? You might drop from the second pick to the seventh in the first round and still grab a player you strongly believe will be a top-three scorer. In return you’ll receive upgrades in the second and fourth rounds, placing you in a significantly better position than your opponents. In a 12-team league this would equate to taking the 18th overall pick (instead of the 23rd), followed by the 26th (your pre-established third round pick), followed by the 42nd (instead of the 47th). If I’m not high on the consensus pick that has fallen into my lap, I would always rather trade down and strengthen my team in the following rounds.
Some competitors are so desperate to snag a top pick that they give up a later round pick altogether. What a coup to trade down on your high first round selection (which you can afford to downgrade) for an advantageous second round swap and a free mid-rounder. This approach works when you tap into your opponents’ longing for a supposed fantasy stud you know (through superior research) is overrated.
Let’s simulate this applying DeAndre Hopkins and his overall #7 ADP. I don’t think he’s worth taking seventh overall, or 10th, or anywhere in the first round. So suppose the league owners learn their draft order an hour before the draft. That gives me an hour to call league members to see what they want for my #7 pick if Hopkins or, say, Ezekiel Elliott (overall 9 ADP) is the best player left on the board. The guy picking 12th tentatively wants to move up, because he wants an elite RB or elite WR. Provided Hopkins and Elliott are the supposed “best guys” available at #7, I offer to swap first round picks if he swaps the second and fourth rounders. He refuses. I tell him he’s getting the biggest-impact bump in the deal, but he doesn’t budge. So I give him one other option: swap first and second rounders, and he gives me his ninth round pick.
If he rejects it, move on to other guys in the draft. If he accepts it, you lose nothing—I repeat, nothing—downgrading five spots in the first round, provided you’ve done your research and are confident that multiple mid-first-round-caliber player will be available when you pick 12th and 13th. Sure enough, it’s your pick at #7, and Hopkins and Elliott are the presumptive best players available. The guy at #12 pulls the trade. You walk away with two of the top 13 picks—both of whom you’ve determined are just as good or better than Hopkins will be this season—and a free ninth rounder.
Mixing sports analogies, it’s not a home run trade. It’s a base hit. One hit at a time, we create the team we want.
A heads-up that my family and I are relocating nearly 300 miles today to North Carolina. If sanity had prevailed, I would have taken a day or two off. But fantasy football trumps sanity. That said, if I can't respond to all of your questions within 24 hours, you now know why.
To get things started, for the next three Tuesdays I’ll share three draft-day trade strategies that, when effectively implemented, will give you an immediate boost. The first approach is called “Top Pick Cutback”:
You have a very high first round draft pick. After thorough research you have identified a concentration of elite talent, such that dropping a few spots will not adversely impact your pursuit of victory. For example, you might anticipate that, outside of the top four or five RBs, there are also a few QBs and a couple of WRs who legitimately could become the year’s #1 fantasy scorer. Or there might be consensus among owners of which players will be picked first and second. If you have one of these two picks, and believe that one or both of these players are overvalued, then trade down in the first round in exchange for trading up in, say, the second and fourth rounds.
What would this mean? You might drop from the second pick to the seventh in the first round and still grab a player you strongly believe will be a top-three scorer. In return you’ll receive upgrades in the second and fourth rounds, placing you in a significantly better position than your opponents. In a 12-team league this would equate to taking the 18th overall pick (instead of the 23rd), followed by the 26th (your pre-established third round pick), followed by the 42nd (instead of the 47th). If I’m not high on the consensus pick that has fallen into my lap, I would always rather trade down and strengthen my team in the following rounds.
Some competitors are so desperate to snag a top pick that they give up a later round pick altogether. What a coup to trade down on your high first round selection (which you can afford to downgrade) for an advantageous second round swap and a free mid-rounder. This approach works when you tap into your opponents’ longing for a supposed fantasy stud you know (through superior research) is overrated.
Let’s simulate this applying DeAndre Hopkins and his overall #7 ADP. I don’t think he’s worth taking seventh overall, or 10th, or anywhere in the first round. So suppose the league owners learn their draft order an hour before the draft. That gives me an hour to call league members to see what they want for my #7 pick if Hopkins or, say, Ezekiel Elliott (overall 9 ADP) is the best player left on the board. The guy picking 12th tentatively wants to move up, because he wants an elite RB or elite WR. Provided Hopkins and Elliott are the supposed “best guys” available at #7, I offer to swap first round picks if he swaps the second and fourth rounders. He refuses. I tell him he’s getting the biggest-impact bump in the deal, but he doesn’t budge. So I give him one other option: swap first and second rounders, and he gives me his ninth round pick.
If he rejects it, move on to other guys in the draft. If he accepts it, you lose nothing—I repeat, nothing—downgrading five spots in the first round, provided you’ve done your research and are confident that multiple mid-first-round-caliber player will be available when you pick 12th and 13th. Sure enough, it’s your pick at #7, and Hopkins and Elliott are the presumptive best players available. The guy at #12 pulls the trade. You walk away with two of the top 13 picks—both of whom you’ve determined are just as good or better than Hopkins will be this season—and a free ninth rounder.
Mixing sports analogies, it’s not a home run trade. It’s a base hit. One hit at a time, we create the team we want.
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