Great fantasy footballers know when to reject the advice of all others when conventional wisdom is anything but wise. Consider that before casting judgment on the next two bold predictions:
(24) Greg Olsen (TE-3 ADP) will not be a top 5 TE. I know some of you are thinking, “Big deal: not much of a difference between the third and sixth best TEs.” But consider the steep fantasy drop-off between the third and sixth best TEs. Additionally, none of the approximately 90 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Olsen below 5th, while about 90% rank him 2nd or 3rd. The fantasy world believes Olsen is a virtual top 3 TE lock. I’m veering the other way: after back-to-back career years, the 31-year-old is due for a noticeable regression. Olsen will not be leaned on as heavily this year, with Kevin Benjamin back and Devin Funchess maturing into a legitimate starter. Olsen is shaping up as Carolina’s #3 receiving option after co-leading or leading the passing attack in each of the last two seasons. While I have little doubt he’ll post top 6-8 TE numbers, his days of positional dominance are likely over.
(25) Demaryius Thomas (WR-16 ADP) will not be a top 25 WR. I make this prediction knowing that it’s easy to challenge and, quite honestly, makes me look a bit out of touch. Thomas has racked up 1,300+ yards in each of the past four seasons, with double-digit scoring in three of the four. Despite being on the receiving of an anemic passing game last year, he managed to be the #13 fantasy scoring WR. None of the roughly 90 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts place him outside the top 25. So what’s the problem? Here are a few warning signs. First, the Broncos were 14th in passing yards in 2015; they’ll fall into the 20s this season. Second, they were 17th in rushing yards last year; a healthy C.J. Anderson will be a greater focal point of this offense in 2016. The fact is, neither Mark Sanchez nor Trevor Siemian nor Paxton Lynch will make Thomas look any better than he did last year—and likely will fall well short. Thomas will be a WR2/3 most weeks, and barring a QB upgrade, there’s no way around this.
(24) Greg Olsen (TE-3 ADP) will not be a top 5 TE. I know some of you are thinking, “Big deal: not much of a difference between the third and sixth best TEs.” But consider the steep fantasy drop-off between the third and sixth best TEs. Additionally, none of the approximately 90 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Olsen below 5th, while about 90% rank him 2nd or 3rd. The fantasy world believes Olsen is a virtual top 3 TE lock. I’m veering the other way: after back-to-back career years, the 31-year-old is due for a noticeable regression. Olsen will not be leaned on as heavily this year, with Kevin Benjamin back and Devin Funchess maturing into a legitimate starter. Olsen is shaping up as Carolina’s #3 receiving option after co-leading or leading the passing attack in each of the last two seasons. While I have little doubt he’ll post top 6-8 TE numbers, his days of positional dominance are likely over.
(25) Demaryius Thomas (WR-16 ADP) will not be a top 25 WR. I make this prediction knowing that it’s easy to challenge and, quite honestly, makes me look a bit out of touch. Thomas has racked up 1,300+ yards in each of the past four seasons, with double-digit scoring in three of the four. Despite being on the receiving of an anemic passing game last year, he managed to be the #13 fantasy scoring WR. None of the roughly 90 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts place him outside the top 25. So what’s the problem? Here are a few warning signs. First, the Broncos were 14th in passing yards in 2015; they’ll fall into the 20s this season. Second, they were 17th in rushing yards last year; a healthy C.J. Anderson will be a greater focal point of this offense in 2016. The fact is, neither Mark Sanchez nor Trevor Siemian nor Paxton Lynch will make Thomas look any better than he did last year—and likely will fall well short. Thomas will be a WR2/3 most weeks, and barring a QB upgrade, there’s no way around this.