If you want to be popular, be right today, reinforcing what others already believe to be true. If you want to be right, embrace unpopularity if it means rejecting others’ points of view.
When I settle on a prediction that I know will be unpopular, I’m both optimistic and a little concerned—optimistic because it’ll give me a competitive advantage if I’m right, and a little concerned because it’ll expose me to deserved backlash if I’m wrong. But that impacts neither my prediction nor my decision to share it. If I believe it, I have to believe it strongly enough to stand by it, regardless of the near-term pushback.
There are many well-reasoned sentiments concerning nearly every fantasy player. The following bold prediction ignores nearly all professed reasoning surrounding this year’s most celebrated rookie. I’m ready for your pushback, and I’m also ready to return to this subject in December to see whether it was the least bit prophetic or just plain dumb:
(21) Ezekiel Elliott (RB-4 ADP) will not be a top 12 RB. Since being drafted with the Cowboys’ #4 overall pick, Elliott has been heralded as an immediate-impact superstar, largely due to Dallas’s incredible offensive line, as well as because he’s objectively the most talented RB in that backfield. Oh, and he was practically flawless in 108 pass-block attempts in 2015--where poor pass blocking is a frequent hindrance to rookie RBs' development.
DallasCowboys.com’s David Helman proclaimed in June that Elliott “will finish with roughly 280-300 carries.” The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Drew Davison believes the rookie might exceed 300 carries. And Sports Illustrated legend Peter King proclaimed a couple weeks ago that Elliott “better be ready to carry it an Emmitt [Smith]-like 375 times this year.” Can you feel the fantasy fervor? Eze-E is a can’t-miss first rounder! Get psyched!!
For a while this summer, I believed it too. What’s stopping Elliott from being an absolute force of nature? Then, bit by bit, the picture became clearer. While this 21-year-old is a great bet to dominate, I’m capping him at 1,200 total yards and seven TDs—not the 1,500+/10+ most people expect. For starters, Dallas has no reason to overwork its franchise RB as it did impending free agent DeMarco Murray in 2014. We continually see what happens the year after an RB is run into the ground. As I tweeted a few weeks ago, Elliott won’t exceed 300 total touches in 2016 (https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/755750727067246592), and 250-275 over a 16-game season is more realistic.
Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris, and Lance Dunbar won’t collect dust on the sidelines. McFadden’s broken elbow is no longer expected to keep him out Week 1, Morris should benefit playing behind an elite offensive line, and a healthy Dunbar will continue to be an effective pass catcher. Each veteran will earn 40-80 touches this season, as Dallas maximizes Elliott’s utility without risking unnecessary injury and overuse.
And if you don’t believe that, consider how Elliott’s been sidelined since Tuesday with a hamstring injury. Cowboys Executive Vice President Stephen Jones said the team will be “conservative” with the rookie, and who can blame them? Elliott needs to practice heavily (and effectively) and play in at least a couple preseason games if he wants to lock down a Week 1 bell cow role.
To be clear, like most of the fantasy chorus I anticipate big things for Elliott in 2016. But with 92 of 94 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts ranking him inside the top 12—and a majority inside the top 4—I’m embracing unpopularity. Avoid Elliott at or even near his current draft position.
When I settle on a prediction that I know will be unpopular, I’m both optimistic and a little concerned—optimistic because it’ll give me a competitive advantage if I’m right, and a little concerned because it’ll expose me to deserved backlash if I’m wrong. But that impacts neither my prediction nor my decision to share it. If I believe it, I have to believe it strongly enough to stand by it, regardless of the near-term pushback.
There are many well-reasoned sentiments concerning nearly every fantasy player. The following bold prediction ignores nearly all professed reasoning surrounding this year’s most celebrated rookie. I’m ready for your pushback, and I’m also ready to return to this subject in December to see whether it was the least bit prophetic or just plain dumb:
(21) Ezekiel Elliott (RB-4 ADP) will not be a top 12 RB. Since being drafted with the Cowboys’ #4 overall pick, Elliott has been heralded as an immediate-impact superstar, largely due to Dallas’s incredible offensive line, as well as because he’s objectively the most talented RB in that backfield. Oh, and he was practically flawless in 108 pass-block attempts in 2015--where poor pass blocking is a frequent hindrance to rookie RBs' development.
DallasCowboys.com’s David Helman proclaimed in June that Elliott “will finish with roughly 280-300 carries.” The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Drew Davison believes the rookie might exceed 300 carries. And Sports Illustrated legend Peter King proclaimed a couple weeks ago that Elliott “better be ready to carry it an Emmitt [Smith]-like 375 times this year.” Can you feel the fantasy fervor? Eze-E is a can’t-miss first rounder! Get psyched!!
For a while this summer, I believed it too. What’s stopping Elliott from being an absolute force of nature? Then, bit by bit, the picture became clearer. While this 21-year-old is a great bet to dominate, I’m capping him at 1,200 total yards and seven TDs—not the 1,500+/10+ most people expect. For starters, Dallas has no reason to overwork its franchise RB as it did impending free agent DeMarco Murray in 2014. We continually see what happens the year after an RB is run into the ground. As I tweeted a few weeks ago, Elliott won’t exceed 300 total touches in 2016 (https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/755750727067246592), and 250-275 over a 16-game season is more realistic.
Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris, and Lance Dunbar won’t collect dust on the sidelines. McFadden’s broken elbow is no longer expected to keep him out Week 1, Morris should benefit playing behind an elite offensive line, and a healthy Dunbar will continue to be an effective pass catcher. Each veteran will earn 40-80 touches this season, as Dallas maximizes Elliott’s utility without risking unnecessary injury and overuse.
And if you don’t believe that, consider how Elliott’s been sidelined since Tuesday with a hamstring injury. Cowboys Executive Vice President Stephen Jones said the team will be “conservative” with the rookie, and who can blame them? Elliott needs to practice heavily (and effectively) and play in at least a couple preseason games if he wants to lock down a Week 1 bell cow role.
To be clear, like most of the fantasy chorus I anticipate big things for Elliott in 2016. But with 92 of 94 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts ranking him inside the top 12—and a majority inside the top 4—I’m embracing unpopularity. Avoid Elliott at or even near his current draft position.